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Late March Losses Reinforces USD Vulnerability versus Euro and Yen

Technical Analysis

The US Dollar resumed its negative path into late Q1 (and now into early April), against both the Euro and Japanese Yen, to reinforce losses evident since the FOMC Meeting on Wednesday 16th March.

This price action leaves the bias for further EURUSD gains and USDJPY losses into early Q2.

More technical analysis

EURUSD

An erratic tone Friday, but again, as expected another upside break to reinforce the prior push above notable 1.1376 and 1.1395 resistances, to defend 1.1308 support and to leave an upside bias for Monday.

For Monday/ Tuesday:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.1438 and 1.1455; break here aims for key 1.1495, maybe towards 1.1545
  • But below 1.1334 aims for 1.1308 and maybe opens risk down to 1.1282.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: A strong rally through the 10/03 ECB Meeting through 1.1157 shifted the intermediate term outlook to bullish.

  • We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 1.1495.
  • Above here targets 1.1714 and 1.1871.

What Changes This? Below 1.1055 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.0821.

 

Daily EURUSD Chart

EURUSD

USDJPY

A Friday breakout lower (through 111.98 support as expected) from the Thursday consolidation, to reinforce the negative tone from the bearish outside pattern last Tuesday (ahead 113.82 resistance, from 113.80), for a bear theme again Monday .

For Monday/ Tuesday:

  • We see a downside bias for 111.55; break here aims for 111.37 and 111.02, maybe the 110.63 cycle low.
  • But above 112.00 112.80 aims for 112.80.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to 110.33/00.
  • Below here targets 106.65/12.

What Changes This? Above 114.88 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 117.53.

Daily USDJPY Chart

USDJPY

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