- The US dollar has shifted to a slightly more negative corrective theme this week, but this has done little to damage the positive tone created from September.
- Although the FOMC Meeting Minutes leave the Fed on a hawkish path with a likely rate hike into the end of 2017, the US Dollar unable to react positively on Wednesday.
- For USDJPY, whilst holding above 111.96 we see short-term upside pressures, with an intermediate-term shift back to neutral requiring a push below 111.45.
- USDCAD sees downside correction risks short-term, but we still see October threat to neutralise the intermediate-term bearish theme, but only above 1.2663.
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USDJPY – Rebound bias
We continue have a positive outlook after the FOMC Meeting Minutes, whilst holding above 111.96, with a rebound bias into Thursday.
However, surrender of 111.96, however, however would quickly see negative pressures resume.
The latter September push through 112.20 produced a bullish shift in the intermediate-term outlook and indicates upside risk into October.
- Whilst holding 111.96 we see an upside bias for 112.83; break here aims for 113.44, 113.58, then maybe 113.74.
- But below 111.96 opens risk down to 111.45, maybe down to 111.10 and 110.75.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:
- We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 114.50
- Above here targets 115.50/63 and maybe towards 118.65.
What Changes This? Below 109.53 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 107.29.
4 Hour USD JPY Chart
USDCAD – Downside bias
A negative tone Wednesday after Tuesday’s push down through support at 1.2500 and the up trend line from mid-September, through 1.2465 this morning already, keeping the risk lower Thursday.
However, we still see October threat for a shift in the intermediate-term bearish view to neutral, but only above 1.2663, And even as high as 1.2778, which would see an intermediate term bullish switch.
- For Today:
- We see a downside bias for 1.2413/12; break here aims towards 1.2332.
- But above 1.2518 opens risk up to 1.2559.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- Whilst below 1.2663, we see a negative tone with the bearish threat to targets 1.2000 and 1.1919.
What Changes This? Above 1.2663 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.2778.
4 Hour USD CAD Chart