A negative EURUSD outlook, but GBPUSD is indecisive (with a downside bias)

eurusd chart

  • A restoration of a US$ Dollar strength from late November and into early December against many of the Major currencies.
  • This has been driven by progress of US tax reform legislation and a broader “risk on” outlook on markets in to year-end.
  • For EURUSD, we see a broader range environment, defined by 1.1553 and 1.2089, but with the asymmetrical bias to the downside.
  • GBPUSD is also in a wider, non-trend range, seen as 1.3026 and 1,3658. Despite recent gains into Brexit negotiations and progress, more recent price action switches the immediate bias back to the downside.

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EURUSD Downside risks

Again, a negative consolidation Friday through 1.1760after the early December surrender of 1.1808, keeping risks lower for Monday.

The latter November push through 1.1880 produced an intermediate-term shift from bearish to neutral, for a broader range theme for December.

For Today:

  • We see a negative tone through 1.1729; below aims for a notable support at 1.1712, maybe 1.1660.
  • But above 1.1848 aims back towards 1.1900/03.

Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.2089 and 1.1553.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 1.2089 aims higher for 1.2173, 1.2272 and 1.2600.
  • Downside: Below 1.1553 sees risk lower for 1.1311 and 1.1107.

Resistance and Support:

1.1815 1.1848 1.1900/03 1.1961* 1.2005**
1.1729 1.1712** 1.1660** 1.1621 1.1584

4 Hour EURUSD Chart

eurusd chart

GBPUSD Negative bias

An unexpected setback Friday after an aggressive d bounce effort from 1.3319, for now rejecting upside pressures from the latter November rebound from 1.3220 resuming downside forces from the early December sell off, switching the bias lower for Monday.

For Today:

  • We see a negative tone to aim for 1.3319; below quickly targets 1.3290 and then maybe towards 1.3220.
  • But above 1.3460 aims at 1.3520 and maybe 1,3549.

Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.3026 and 1.3658.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 1.3658 aims higher for 1.3841 and 1.4000.
  • Downside: Below 1.3026 sees risk lower for 1.2773 and 1.2587.

Resistance and Support:

1.3460 1.3520* 1.3549* 1.3596** 1.3658***
1.3319* 1.3290 1.3220** 1.3181 1.3113

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart

gbpusd chart

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.


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