Significant gains for the New Zealand and Australian Dollars in the first half of January have significantly eased intermediate-term bearish pressures from the Q4 2016 sell offs versus the US Dollar.
The AUDUSD move above .7527 has seen an intermediate-term shift to a broader range theme. For NZDUSD, a similar technical signal still requires a push above .7239.
This activity leaves risks higher into latter January for both NZDUSD and AUDUSD.
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A dip and bounce on Friday from head of support at .7039, maintaining outside pressures from the extremely strong rally Thursday (through 7080 and .7119), leaving risk to the upside into Monday.
Furthermore, the growing threat is for a push-up through .7239, which Would shift the intermediate term outlook from bearish to neutral.
- We see an upside bias for .7145; break here aims for .7174/76, maybe .7200 and critical .7239.
- But below .7067 opens risk down to .7039.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .6800.
- Below here targets .6676/64, .6572/41 and maybe as deep as .6343.
What Changes This? Above .7239 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7403.
A high-level consolidation Wednesday above minor support at .7518, of the anticipated Tuesday push above .7525, which shifted the intermediate-term outlook from bearish to neutral.
Furthermore, this leaves risk of further gains into Thursday.
- We see an upside bias for .7569; break here aims for .7581, maybe .7630.
- But below .7518 opens risk down to .7461, maybe .7425.
Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by .7155 and .7778.
Range Breakout Challenge
- Upside: Above .7778 aims higher for .7835/49/78 and .80000.
- Downside: Below .7155 sees risk lower for .7141, .7106, .6971 and maybe .6825.