The Antipodean currencies (New Zealand and Australian Dollars) have both retained a positive bias into early July against the US Dollar to reject previous bearish activity from the Thursday 23rd June UK “Brexit” vote.
The NZDUSD spot rate has maintained a bullish trend and although AUDUSD is still within a broader range environment, the risk is skewed higher.
Another significant sell off Wednesday, but then a bounce from .7075 support, to reinforce the erratic tone this week and to set a consolidation theme into Thursday.
For Thursday/ Friday: We see a neutral tone between .7075 and .7220/40 (with a positive bias)
- Break above .7220/40 aims for .7254/55, maybe .7298, which we would look to try to cap.
- Break below .7075 aims for .7055/53 and maybe .7014, which we would look to try to hold.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: A previous shift to an intermediate-term bullish tone above .7054.
- We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 7298.
- Above here targets 7396/7413 and .7564.
What Changes This? Below .6960 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .6676.
Daily NZDUSD Chart
A dip as expected down to .7403 support, but then a strong rebound Wednesday, to highlight the indecisive near term tone evident this week (since the Australian election) and also reinforce the broader range theme, for a neutral tone into Thursday.
For Thursday/ Friday: We see a neutral tone between .7403 and .7545 (with a positive bias)
- Break above .7545 aims for .7559 and .7591, which we would look to try to cap.
- Break below .7403 aims for .7370, maybe .7340, which we would look to try to hold.
Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by .7719 and .7141, but with risks skewed to a bullish breakout into July.
Range Breakout Challenge
- Upside: Above .7719 aims higher for .7835/49/78 and .8000.
- Downside: Below .7141 sees risk lower for .7106/.7000/.6971 and .6825.
Daily AUDUSD Chart