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NZDUSD and AUDUSD stay bearish into year-end

nzdusd chart

  • After an erratic consolidation theme for the US dollar through November, buy there are signals that a more positive US$ outlook resurfacing (as seen in September-October).
  • This would leave upside risks for the USD into December and we would look for NZDUSD and AUDUSD bear trends to resurface as we discussed here back in November.
  • For NZDUSD, the December risks is through .6778 for .6676/64, maybe .6541
  • AUDUSD year-end bias is for a new cycle low below .7533, closer to a target at .7331and maybe even the .7155/41 area.

 

NZDUSD Rebound failure

Another rebound failure Wednesday as seen Tuesday down from just above initial resistance at .6908/12, sustaining the negative consolidation tone seen since the late November push down through support at .6849, leaving the bias lower for Thursday.

The October break of .7128 set an intermediate-term bearish outlook, with risk now easing for a challenge up to .6980, only through which would see the intermediate-term outlook shift back to neutral.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .6836; below here targets 6818/15, maybe .6788.
  • But above .6917 aims for .6945.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .6676/64.
  • Below here targets .6541 and .6343.
  • What Changes This? Above .6980 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7211.

Resistance and Support:

.6917* .6945* .6980*** .7003/04** .7056*
.6836 .6818/15* .6778** .6755 .6700

4 Hour NZDUSD Chart

nzdusd chart

AUDUSD Bear bias reinforced

A negative tone and push lower Wednesday through .7575 support, sustaining negative pressure from Tuesday’s rally then rapid descent from.7654) and to retain downside forces from the late November spike down to .7549/48, keeping the bias back lower Thursday.

Late November/ early December negative price action has for now rejected risk for a challenge up to .7730, only through which would see the intermediate-term outlook shift from bearish back to neutral.

For Today:

  • We see a downside for .7533/32, possibly .7516.
  • But above .7598 targets .7654 and maybe aims towards .7666

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .7532 and .7331.
  • Below here targets the .7155/41 area.

What Changes This? Above .7730 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7986.

Resistance and Support:

.7598 .7654* .7666 .7700** .7730***
.7533/32** .7516 .7495 .7516 .7495

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

 audusd chart

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