NZDUSD bullish shift and AUDUSD bullish threat

nzdusd chart

  • The US$ is generally weaker across major currencies in April, with a shift back towards more of a “risk on” scenario” with the Yen also weakening alongside US Treasuries.
  • For NZDUSD, the push above key .7355 resistance has reflected this shift to a “risk on” bias, signalling an intermediate-term range breakout for a bullish intermediate-term theme.
  • The late March AUDUSD surrender of .7710 shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bearish, but the April recovery above .7785 has set a neutral theme, with risk skewed for of a bullish intermediate-term shift above .7916.

 

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NZDUSD Upside forces intact

A Friday rally and setback for a bearish outside daily pattern, and a likely dip on the open this week, but whilst above .7301 we still see the bull theme from early April, aiming higher again Monday.

The April push above .7355 signalled a breakout from an intermediate-term range to a bullish intermediate-term view.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .7395; break here aims for .7411, then the cycle peaks at .7437.
  • But below .7301 opens risk down to .7268, maybe .7239.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for .7437.

  • Higher targets would be 7558 and .7744.
  • What Changes This? Below .7151 shifts intermediate-term straight from bullish to bearish.

Resistance and Support:

.7395 .7411* .7437*** .7455* .7473
.7342* .7301 .7268 .7239** .7184*

4 Hour NZDUSD Chart

nzdusd chart

 

AUDUSD Intermediate-term bear trend neutralised above .7785

We have stressed in recent reports that, “we see an intermediate-term bearish trend, BUT risks is growing for a shift back to a neutral range theme” and we now see a range defined as .7640 and .7916, with bias for a bullish shift above .7916.

Despite an intraday setback Friday and a dip lower expected to start the week, the push above .7785 sets risks higher for Monday, whilst above .7715.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .7810, then .7848.
  • But below .7715 opens risk down to .7649/40 and .7635.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as .7640 and .7916.

  • Upside Risks: Above .7916 sets a bull trend to aim for .8000 and .8138.
  • Downside Risks: Below .7640 sees a bear trend to target .7500, .7368/31 and .7155/41.

Resistance and Support:

.7810 .7848*** .7916*** .7951* .7989**
.7715 .7687 .7649/40/35** .7599 .7550/43*

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

 audusd chart

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