On Thursday 30th April at 9.00 am local time we get the Royal National Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision and Statement. This will likely have a significant impact on the NZDUSD exchange rate, in the wake of the US FOMC Meeting Statement earlier on Wednesday.
NZDUSD Hesitant, but Resilient
The probes above .7738/40 peaks reinforces our bigger picture view, that the strong April rebound has reinforced the previous Double Bottom for a stronger recovery phase into late April and for May.
However, the Wednesday setback points to a further correction theme on Thursday.
- We see a downside bias for .7680; break here aims for .7657 and maybe .7614, which we would look to try to hold.
- But above .7744 opens risk up to .7785; break here aims for the .7800, maybe closer to .7851.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:
- Bigger picture, we see a more positive tone with the bullish threat to .7851.
- Above here targets .7890 and maybe .7975/77.
What Changes This? Below .7534 eases bull risks; through .7422 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .7391.