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NZDUSD Consolidation; AUDUSD Bull Threat


The US Dollar sell off since the mid-March FOMC Meeting has seen threat of a more bullish tone for AUDUSD and has rejected a more bearish tone for NZDUSD.

However, the recent setback for these two Forex rates, driven by the “risk off” scenario after equity market sell offs this week, leaves the immediate risk for AUDUSD and NZDUSD setbacks.

NZDUSD

A negative consolidation Wednesday (after the push higher Tuesday above the .7070/73 chart and retracement resistance area), but this is enough to indicate a negative tone also into Thursday.

Furthermore, we see reduced risk of an intermediate-term bearish shift below .6867.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .7000; break here aims for .6964.
  • But above .7090 and .7100 opens risk up to .7131.

Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by .7403 and .6867.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above .7403 aims higher for .7485, .7564 and .7744.
  • Downside: Below .6867 sees risk lower for .6800, .6676/64, .6572/41 and maybe as deep as .6343.

Daily NZDUSD Chart

nzdusd chart

AUDUSD

A negative correction tone Wednesday, back from new peaks at .7748/50, through .7682 and .7659 supports, shifting risks lower for Thursday.

However, the threat remains for a push above .7778, which would see an intermediate-term bullish shift.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .7635; break here aims for .7591.
  • But above .7719 opens risk up to .7750.

Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by .7487 and .7778.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above .7778 aims higher for .7835/49/78 and .80000.
  • Downside: Below .7487 sees risk lower for .7155/41/06, .6971 and maybe .6825.

Daily AUDUSD Chart

audusd chart

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