Our view has been recently that the April Double Top was reinforced by the probe below key .7422, which neutralized the Q1 Double Bottom for a shift to a broader range theme, with risk of a bearish shift through .7391.
The bearish outside pattern Monday to plunge through .7391 confirmed this view of a more bearish bias and leaves the focus lower for Tuesday and into May.
- We see a downside bias for .7300; break here aims for key .7274 and maybe .7245.
- But above .7406 opens risk up to .7445, which we would look to try to cap.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- We now see a more negative tone with the bearish threat to 7274.
- Below here targets the cycle lows at .7192/76 and key .7110 spike low from 2011.
What Changes This? Above .7522 eases bear risks; through .7577 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7744.
Momentum: The 8-day RSI, short-term momentum is falling and has scope to go still lower this week.