- A strong push higher by the NZDUSD spot FX rate into the end of May, with the push above the .7053 level neutralising the bearish trend.
- For NZDUSD, the growing risk is for a push above .7247, that would shift the intermediate-term outlook to bullish.
- For AUDUSD, the growing threat is for a positive tone to push up towards .7680 which would signal a shift to an intermediate-term neutral theme
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NZDUSD – Upside risks
Once again as expected yet another push to a new recovery high on Wednesday up through .7100, maintaining and reinforcing the recovery tone into Thursday.
Furthermore, the previous push above .7053 signalled a move back to an intermediate-term neutral range theme (from bearish).
l We see an upside bias for .7122 and .7135; through here aims up to .7169
l But below .7030 opens risk down to .7003, maybe down to .6984/83.
Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by .6814 and .7247.
Range Breakout Challenge
l Upside: Above .7247 aims higher for .7376, .7403 and maybe as high as .7485.
l Downside: Below .6814 sees risk lower for .6676/64 and .6572/41, maybe as deep as .6343.
4 Hour NZDUSD Chart
AUDUSD – Upside bias intact
Little to add to recent comments, yet another positive consolidation Wednesday, with another intraday bounce to produce a second Hammer type pattern in the past three days, maintaining an upside bias into Thursday.
However, the early April push down through .7487 produced an intermediate-term bearish shift.
l We see an upside bias back up to .7516/17 for strong resistance at .7556; break here aims for .7591, maybe .7611.
l But below .7417/12 opens risk down to .7384/78.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
l We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .7283/79.
l Below here targets .7155/41/06 area, .7000 and .6971.
What Changes This? Above .7680 shift the bear theme to neutral; through .7750 signals a bullish tone
4 Hour AUDUSD Chart