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NZDUSD Risk of a Bearish Shift

Technical Analysis

The erratic Wednesday setback has neutralized and dismissed the bullish outside Tuesday pattern and rejected our view of a better recovery phase.

Moreover, this activity has reinforced the April Double Top and leaves risk to key .7422.

A break here would again neutralize the Q1 Double Bottom and signal a shift to a broader range theme, but likely with a negative bias.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .7455; break here aims for .7436 and .7422, which should try to hold.
  • But above .7551 opens risk up to .7577, maybe to .7600, which we would look to try to cap.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

  • Bigger picture, only whilst above .7422, leaves a positive tone with the bullish threat back to the .7744 peak and then to .7851.
  • Above here targets .7890 and maybe .7975/77.

What Changes This? Below .7422 signals a neutral tone, quickly shifting negative below .7391.

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.


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