The New Zealand Dollar has produced a strong rebound effort versus the US Dollar over the past week going into Thursday’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate decision on US Dollar. This activity has rejected the previous setbacks seen in mid-July and early August, leaving strong chance for a more bullish shift on a break above .7324.
AUDUSD continues to push to new cycle highs and is targeting the 2016 high at .7835 and above through mid-August.
Yet another rally Wednesday to a new rebound high above .7219 and .7256 resistances, building on the intraday turnaround bounce Monday (from ahead of .7058, off .7084), to again set an upside bias into the RBNZ decision Thursday (late Wednesday European/ US time).
Although Mid-July saw a probe down below the key .6960 level for a shift in the intermediate-term outlook to neutral (from bullish), August risk is still for a bullish shift again above.7324.
Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the broader range defined by .7324 and .6676.
Range Breakout Challenge
- Upside: Above .7324 aims higher for .7396/7413 and .7564.
- Downside: Below .6676 sees risk lower for .6541 and .6343.
- We see an upside bias for .7272; break here aims for .7300 and .key 7324, maybe closer to .7365.
- But below .7183 targets .7144 and opens risk down to .7106.
Daily NZDUSD Chart
Yet another strong push to the topside Wednesday, once again as anticipated, to another new recovery high above the cycle peak from July (.7676) through 7700 and .7719 targets, to again leave an upside bias Thursday.
The strong push above .7676 reinforced our intermediate-term bullish view.
The 2013-2015 down trend line is currently just below .7800 and a weekly close above here would be a significant bullish statement!
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: The mid-July new recovery high above .7648 signalled an intermediate-term bullish shift.
- We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to .7835/50/78.
- Above here targets .8000 and .8164/66.
What Changes This? Below .7484 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .7403.
- We see an upside bias for .7755 and .7765; break here aims for .7800 and maybe at a key target area at .7835/50/78.
- But below .7683 targets .7659 and maybe .7619.
Daily AUDUSD Chart