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Post-FOMC USD gains Leaves Bias for AUDUSD and NZSUSD Lower, USDJPY Higher

Technical Analysis

A positive reaction for the US Dollar after the FOMC statement on Wednesday 29th July leaves risks of underlying US Dollar bull themes to revive versus the Australian and New Zealand Dollars. For USDJPY, this leaves the threat for a more bullish shift, from a range environment.

AUDUSD

  • A failure from ahead of minor resistance at .7362 through midweek leaves the underlying bear theme intact and bias lower for Thursday.
  • Moreover, the plunge lower last week to breach a long term support at .7269 after the late June plunge through the prior 2015 low at .7533, leaves a bearish theme into early August.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .7269 and .7091.
  • Break sees psychological .7000.

 

Daily AUDUSD Chart

Daily AUDUSD

Monthly AUDUSD Chart

Monthly AUDUSD

NZDUSD 

  • Despite the firmer rebound Tuesday above the intermediate-term trend line from late April and Dow Theory swing high at .6682, the roll back lower through midweek, from ahead of .6743 and key .6772 has rejected a shift to a neutral range theme.
  • This leaves the late July bias for a roll back lower to the rebound range.
  • Moreover, whilst below .6772, a shift to a neutral theme is avoided and the risk into early August is for the underlying bear trend to re-energize.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to longer term targets at .6404 and .6196/54.
  • Overshoot threat is lower to maybe .6000.

 

Daily NZDUSD Chart

Daily NZDUSD

Monthly NZDUSD Chart

Monthly NZDUSD

USDJPY

  • A bounce from our support area at 122.90/85, to probe above modest resistance at 123.84 and leave a positive bias for Thursday/ Friday.
  • Moreover, we once again stress that we still favour a July bullish resolution, now above 124.48.
  • Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We now see the range defined by 124.48 and 120.39.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 124.48 aims higher for 125.85 and 129.08.
  • Downside: Below 120.39 sees risk lower for 118.86 and 118.33/14, maybe 116.67.

 

Daily USDJPY Chart

USDJPY

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