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Risk On Phase Sees Bull Bias for Both AUDUSD and NZDUSD

AUDUSD

  • Both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD Forex rates have staged solid recoveries since the early July setback.
  • These have built on the strong rallies seen since mid-June.
  • Fundamentals:
    • Risk on environment from the positive outcome from the G20 Meeting with US-Sino trade negotiations restarting.
    • A weaker US Dollar, in places with a dovish Fed in play, with US data somewhat disappointing this week.
  • The AUDUSD currency pair recovery has seen an intermediate-term bullish shift above .7022.
  • The NZDUSD FX rate shifted intermediate-term bullish with a multi-week Double Bottom through .6681.

 

AUDUSD bias higher

A surge Wednesday to build on the Tuesday rebound to prod back above the early July recovery peak at .7035 to .70-39 and reinforce the push above our key .7022 resistance for an intermediate-term bullish shift, to shift the bias higher for Thursday.

The early July push through .7022 has seen a bullish intermediate-term shift.

For Today:                                                        

  • We see an upside bias for .7048; break here aims for .7069 and maybe .7103.
  • But below .6986 opens risk down to .6953/40.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 7206 and .7295.

  • What Changes This? Below .6901 shifts the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral; through .6829 is needed for an intermediate-term bear theme.

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

AUDUSD

 

NZDUSD threat to the topside

A firm advance Wednesday above .6704 resistance to reject Monday’s selloff down through the uptrend line from early June (back above this trend line), flipping the bias back higher for Thursday.

The late June break .6681 set a multiweek Double Bottom and an intermediate-term bull trend.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .6729; break here aims for .6748 and maybe .6760.
  • But below .6670 opens risk down to .6653.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for .6782/83.

  • Higher targets would be .6836/37 and .6938/42.
  • What Changes This? Below .6592 shifts the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral; through .6484/80 is needed for an intermediate-term bear theme.

4 Hour NZDUSD Chart

NZDUSD

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.


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