Both the Japanese yen and Gold have remained strong since the UK Brexit vote back in late June. Even a bullish Employment report from the US on Friday 8th July has seen a negative outcome for the US currency to push USDJPY lower (a stronger Yen). Also, this saw an eventual bull tone for the Gold future, despite an initial dip lower.
This leaves risk for a still stronger Yen into July (USDJPY lower) and for a bullish Gold future outlook.
An erratic session Friday through the US Employment report, but another negative tone setting back from a brief prod at resistance at 101.23 (back from 101.28), to push down through support at 100.17 and just to prod 100.00 reinforces bear pressures for to a negative theme into Monday.
- We see a downside bias for 100.00/99.99; break here aims closer to 99.00, which we would look to try to hold at first.
- But above 101.28 and 101.46 opens risk up to 101.76 and aims for 102.52, which we would look to try to cap.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to 96.57.
- Below here targets 92.57 and 90.86.
Daily USDJPY Chart
A significant dip lower through the US Employment report, but then a very solid pattern for a bullish Hammer/ Dragonfly Doji candlestick from 1336, ahead is 1323/22 support, reinforcing a bull tone from the new cycle and 2016 high in early July, to maintain an upside bias Monday.
- We see an upside bias for 1372/73 and 1377/78; break here aims towards 1391.
- But below 1345/44 targets 1336 and opens risk down to 1323/22.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:
- We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 1391, 1400, 1420/28, maybe 1500/08!!
What Changes This? Below 1253 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1199.
Weekly Gold Future Chart (August 2016 Contract)