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Strong Outlook for the Greenback

Technical Analysis

The US currency has remained strong over the past 1-2 weeks and particularly against the Dollar-Bloc currencies as we have highlighted in recent reports.

The Canadian Dollar last week joined the Australian and New Zealand Dollars in the breach of its previous 2015 extreme. But here we will look at the ongoing bear trends for AUDUSD and in particular, NZDUSD.

However, we also spotlight the resilience of the British pound, with GBPUSD (Cable) remaining firm and bucking the trend, with a strong performance versus the US Dollar through mid-July.

GBPUSD 

  • Despite the July correction, we maintain the view that whilst above 1.5169 we see a bullish recovery tone for July (from the previous push through a long term retrace barrier at 1.5879 and the 1.5815 May peak).
  • We see a bullish rebound bias for 1.5629/44 and 1.5789.
  • Threat above is then to 1.5930, 1.6000 and 1.6182/88.

NZDUSD

  • A far more negative theme has resurfaced (as we had expected) with downside pressures reinforced for the month with the break below the long term target at .6562 to another new 2015 bear trend low.
  • This now aims for a key target at a long term retracement level at .6404.
  • Overshoot risk is now to .6196/54, maybe .6000.

Monthly NZDUSD Chart

NZDUSD

AUDUSD

  • A bearish outside Wednesday last week to leave a re-energized bear theme for July.
  • This leaves the risk to a key long term support target, a basing support level from 2008-2009 at .7269.
  • The mounting threat is for a break here to aim for a long term retracement target at .7091 and maybe the option/ psychological target at .7000.

Monthly AUDUSD Chart

AUDUSD

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