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The Australian and New Zealand Dollars Stay Bearish into February


Despite recent recovery rebounds for AUDUSD and NZDUSD, we see these as corrective, with underlying bearish pressures for both the Australian and New Zealand Dollars intact.

The previous breakdowns in 2016 favour further losses for AUDUSD and NZDUSD into February and through mid-Q1.

AUDUSD

A solid rally Wednesday, to reduce very near term bearish extension pressures, but then a setback from the .7077/94 area (from .7081) for a shooting star candlestick, to leave bias for a roll back lower again into Thursday.

For This Week:

  • We see a downside bias for .6990; break here aims for .6963 and maybe .6914.
  • But above .7081/94 opens risk up to .7126, maybe .7172, which we would look to try to cap.

The early January break through .7014 set a bigger picture bear bias, now into February.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .6645.
  • Below here targets .6500, .6281, .6124 and .6009/00.

What Changes This? Above .7225 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7327.

Read more technical analysis here

Daily AUDUSD Chart

AUDUSD

NZDUSD

A rebound failure Wednesday from ahead of the .6550/57 resistance area, with a push lower post FOMC and RBNZ for a bearish outside daily pattern, to maintain a bear bias into Thursday.

For This Week:

  • We see a downside bias for .6428/11; break here aims for .6343.
  • But above .6550/57 aims for .6590 and opens risk up to .6613.

The sell off from late December 2015 to breach .6427 saw a switch to a bear theme for January.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .6232.
  • Below here targets .6154 and .6000.

What Changes This? Above .6678 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .6897.

Daily NZDUSD Chart

NZDUSD

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