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US Dollar Rebound: GBPUSD Switches Neutral, EURUSD Risks Bear Shift

Technical Analysis

The US Dollar suffered notable losses against G10 currencies in early June, but a USD rebound over the past week, against European currencies, the Euro and GB Pound, has shifted the outlook to a more US$ positive through mid-June.

Furthermore, this is a key week for the US currency, given the FOMC Meeting on Wednesday 15th June.

The recent US$ rebound has allowed for a shift to a broader range theme for GBPUSD, with a negative bias, whilst EURUSD retains a negative range outlook, but with risk for a shift to more bearish.

Read all technical analysis

GBPUSD

We have highlighted in recent reports; “Growing threat is for a shift to an intermediate-term range theme below 1.4297″ and the plunge lower Friday through this level now established a range theme, but with a negative bias into Monday.

For Monday/ Tuesday:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.4179; break here aims for 1.4129, maybe then towards key 1.4089.
  • But above 1.4360 opens risk up to 1.4425 and 1.4473.

Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.4740 and 1.4089.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 1.4740 aims higher for 1.4816 and 1.4945.
  • Downside: Below 1.4089 sees risk lower for 1.4004 and 1.3834.

Daily GBPUSD Chart

GBPUSD

EURUSD

A push lower Friday (as expected) below our 1.1255/50 support target to reinforce the bearish outside Thursday pattern back from resistance from May at 1.1415, to keep the risk to the downside into Monday.

For Monday/ Tuesday:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.1200/1.1190; break here maybe aims for key 1.1134..
  • But above 1.1350/55 opens risk up to 1.1415/16;.

Above 1.1349 produced an intermediate-term shift back to a neutral range theme

Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.1447 and 1.1134.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 1.1447 aims higher for 1.1616 and 1.1714.
  • Downside: Below 1.1134 sees risk lower for 1.1110/1.1096 and 1.1055.

Daily EURUSD Chart

EURUSD

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