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US Dollar Firming Again Versus Euro, GB Pound and Japanese Yen

Technical Analysis

Whipsaw activity for the US Dollar over the past week, and although the initial rally for EURUSD and sell off for USDJPY have set a more bearish US Dollar view for September, the corrections have already questioned this view. For Cable (GBPUSD) the breakdown has signalled a negative tone to a range environment and left a bias for a more bearish shift.

EURUSD

  • A negative consolidation theme from midweek, turning into a more notable correction through support at 1.1394, 1.1290 and 1.1182 to leave the bias lower for Monday.
  • However, the previous strong rally above 1.1436, 1.1534 and 1.1680 targets aims higher into early September.

For Monday:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.1154/51; break here aims for 1.1110, maybe 1.1015, which we would look to try to hold.
  • But above 1.1236 opens risk up to 1.1308.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

  • We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 1.1714.
  • Above here targets 1.1871, 1.2000 and 1.2254.

What Changes This? Below 1.1015 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.0846.

Daily EURUSD Chart

EURUSD

GBPUSD

  • The plunge through 1.5422 support saw a shift to a broader range theme into early September with bias for a bearish shift below 1.5327.

For Monday:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.5327; break here aims for 1.5285, maybe 1.5256.
  • But above 1.5587 opens risk up to 1.5656.

Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.5327 and 1.5819.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 1.5819 aims higher for 1.5930, 1.6000 and 1.6182/88.
  • Downside: Below 1.5327 sees risk lower for 1.5256, 1.5189 and 1.5000.

Daily GBPUSD Chart

GBPUSD

USDJPY

  • An extremely aggressive sell off last Monday through multiple supports from 2015 (118.86, 118.14, 116.67), but a better rebound late last week leaves a positive tone for this Monday.
  • However, the significant bear shift leaves a still bearish bias into September.

For Monday:

  • We see an upside bias for 121.77 ; break here aims for 122.47, maybe 123.08, which we would look to try to cap.
  • But below 120.62/48 opens risk down to 120.10, maybe 119.76, which we would look to try to hold.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • We see a more negative tone with the bearish threat to 116.14.
  • Below here targets 115.57 and 113.86.

What Changes This? Above 125.28 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 125.85.

Daily USDJPY Chart

USDJPY

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