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US Dollar Losses Against The A$, NZ$ and Yen Post-FOMC Minutes, BUT Underlying US$ Bull Themes Intact

Technical Analysis

 

The US currency suffered modest erosion Wednesday versus Asia Pacific currencies after the release of the Minutes from the FOMC Meeting from July. However, we see these losses as temporary corrections and look for the US$ bullish theme to resume into latter August with the AUDUSD and NZDUSD bias lower and the USDJPY threat to the upside.

AUDUSD

  • A dip and a bounce Wednesday, after a prod at .7320 support, but hesitant to even overcome the modest .7380 level as resistance, with firmer barriers at .7409 and .7440/49, to leave a neutral tone for Thursday.
  • We therefore, see bear pressures intact into latter August.

For Thursday: We see a neutral tone between .7409 and .7309 (with a negative bias)

  • Break above .7409 aims for .7440/49, which we would look to try to cap.
  • Break below .7309 aims for .7255, which we would look to try to hold.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • Whilst below .7499 we see a negative tone resurfacing with the bearish threat to .7269 and .7091.
  • Break sees psychological .7000.

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

AUDUSD

NZDUSD

  • A better rally Wednesday from ahead of modest support at .6523, through resistance at .6605 to nudge .6623, but capped by a strong barrier at .6650 for a neutral consolidation bias for Thursday.
  • Moreover, the break lower last week (after the Chinese Yuan devaluation) re-energized the underlying bear theme into latter August.

For Thursday: We see a neutral tone between .6650 and .6580 (with a negative bias)

  • Break above .6650 aims for .6674/80, which we would look to try to cap.
  • Break below .6580 aims for .6548, maybe .6523 and .6511, which we would look to try to hold.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to longer term targets at .6404 and .6196/54.
  • Overshoot threat is lower to maybe .6000.

2 Hour NZDUSD Chart

NZDUSD

USDJPY

  • A negative consolidation Wednesday through minor support at 124.00, to probe the rebound level from last week at 123.76 (to 123.74) to leave bias to challenge the deeper 123.48/30 support area, aiming still higher into Wednesday.
  • However, the firm August rally to a new rebound high reinforced the rally from late July to leave a bullish bias into latter August.

For Thursday:

  • We see a downside bias for 123.76/74; break here aims for 123.48/30, which we would look to try to hold.
  • But above 124.29 opens risk up to 124.63/69; break here aims for 125.28.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

  • We see a more positive tone with the bullish threat to 125.85.
  • Above here targets 129.08, 130.00 and 132.23.

4 Hour USDJPY Chart

USDJPY

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