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US Dollar Stays Strong Against A$, NZ$ and C$, Through Equity Meltdown

Technical Analysis

The US currency has maintained a firm tone versus the Dollar Bloc currencies, particularly the Commodity currencies and hear we look at AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD.

AUDUSD

  • The break below recent rebound support levels leaves bias to the recently set, new cycle low.
  • The aggressive sell off Monday re-energized bear pressures through late August into early September and for a negative bias for Thursday.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • Whilst below .7499 we see a negative tone resurfacing with the bearish threat to .7038.
  • Break sees psychological .7000 and then .6857.

Monthly AUDUSD Chart

AUDUSD

NZDUSD

  • A setback Wednesday as expected to probe below the .6426 secondary low to push back into the area defined by the aggressive Monday plunge lower to a new cycle and multi-year low through a long term support at .6404 (although we are not quite confident of the low at .6195 with differing data sources indicating different lows).
  • This activity further reinforces the overall bear theme and leaves bias for a push lower into late August/ early September and also into Thursday.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to longer term targets at .6196/54.
  • Overshoot threat is lower to maybe .6000.

Monthly NZDUSD Chart

NZDUSD

USDCAD

  • A dip and a bounce again Wednesday, back from another new cycle high on Tuesday, to leave upside risks Thursday.
  • Moreover, the strong July advance above the 2009 peak at 1.3064 to a 10 year high, leaves risks for a push higher into early August, to aim for further, long term upside targets.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

  • We see a more positive tone with the bullish threat to 1.3454.
  • Above here targets longer term levels at 1.3819 and 1.4000.

Monthly USDCAD Chart

USDCAD

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