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US$ strength plus A$ & NZ$ weakness, aim AUDUSD & NZDUSD lower

audusd chart

  • The US$ continues to strengthen with solid US economic data and a more hawkish tone still emerging from the FOMC.
  • Australian data weakness in late October (notably CPI) has seen AUDUSD fall, leaving the outlook into month end and November bearish.
  • Political power shifts in New Zealand have reinforced an already bearish NZDUSD trend.

Read more technical forex market analyses

AUDUSD – Bearish pressures reinforced

Another significant push lower on Wednesday as expected through support at .7768 and the October low at .7731, to also probe .7711, sustaining negative pressures from last Friday’s failure back from just below resistance at .7897 (from .7887) aiming lower again for Thursday.

The September surrender of important .7805 support produced an intermediate-term bearish shift, BUT risk remains for an intermediate-term shift back to neutral above .7986.

For Today:

l We see a downside bias through .7696; break here aims for .7671, maybe closer to .7639.

l But above .7769 opens risk up to the .7796.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

l We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .7568, maybe towards .7331.

l Below here targets the .7155/41 area.

What Changes This? Above .7986 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .8125.

 

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

audusd chart

NZDUSD – Bearish trend intact

As expected a still negative tone on Wednesday pushing down through support at .6876, reinforcing the Tuesday plunge through .6929 and .6914 supports and bearish pressures from the significant breakdown last Thursday-Friday, leaving the threat lower again this Thursday .

The early October break of .7128 set an intermediate-term bearish outlook, reinforced in October below .7049.

For Today:

l We see a downside bias for .6863; break here aims for .6845, maybe closer to a key level at .6814.

l But above .6911 opens risk up to .6955, maybe towards .7003/04.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

l We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .7003 and .6814.

What Changes This? Above .7211 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7434.

 

4 Hour NZDUSD Chart

nzdusd chart

 

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