A push back lower again last week for USDCAD and USDJPY, to maintain bearish trends seen since the 3rd June US Employment report, which was reinforced last week and into mid-June by the FOMC and BoJ Announcements
This activity maintains bearish intermediate-term trends for USDCAD and USDJPY into mid-June.
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A plunge lower Thursday-Friday, back from ahead of notable resistances at 1.3144 and 1.3188, from a 1.3096 level (from 1.3085), to push back through rebound supports from, last week and set the bias lower for Monday.
Moreover, we still see bigger picture negative June pressures from the recent setback ahead of 1.3218 resistance and push below 1.2908 support.
- We see a downside bias for 1.2822; break here aims for 1.2750/20, maybe towards 1.2767/51.
- But above 1.2939 opens risk up to 1.3000, 1.3045, maybe even 1.3085/96.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: A bearish shift in the intermediate-term outlook was signalled below 1.3360.
- We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to 1.2304.
- Below here targets 1.2127 and 1.2000.
What Changes This? Above 1.3218 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.3296.
Daily USDCAD Chart
A low level consolidation Friday of the extremely aggressive plunge lower after the FOMC Meeting Wednesday to probe below the cycle low at 105.51 and then to capitulate Thursday after the BoJ Meeting, below key long-term support from 2014 at 105.20 and psychological 105.00, to still leave a negative bias into Monday and for June.
- We see a downside bias for 103.72 and 103.54; break here aims for 103.05/00 and key 102.20.
- But above 104.87 opens risk up to 105.50/55, maybe closer to 105.96.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- Whilst below 107.90 we see a negative tone with the bearish threat to long term targets at 102.20, 100.75/71 and maybe 100.00.
What Changes This? Above 107.90 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 111.89.