USDCAD has broken above the cycle high and a long term retracement resistance over the past week. This now sets a far more bullish tone to aim for further long term targets into late December and early 2016.
This USDCAD rally has been significantly driven by oil price erosion, with the Brent Crude Future plunging below $40/ barrel, to multi-year lows. The risk is still lower for year-end and beyond.
The surge last week through the key 1.3457/62 resistance area has set a bullish tone into December (and beyond).
A high level consolidation Tuesday-Thursday above 1.3514, and the surge higher Friday to another new recovery high, leaves an upside bias for Monday.
- We see an upside bias through 1.3757; break here aims for 1.3800 and key 1.3819, maybe 1.3865.
- But below 1.3730 opens risk down to 1.3690/80, which we would look to try to hold.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:
- We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 1.3819 and 1.4000/4030.
What Changes This? Below 1.3221 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.3036.
Monthly USDCAD Chart
Brent Crude Oil (January 2015 Future)
A plunge lower through a key 39.35 level Friday, to another new cycle and secular low (as we had predicted), leaving behind the 2015 low on the continuation chart at 42.23 and the psychological/option level at 40.00, to leave a still negative bias for Monday.
Furthermore, this reinforces the overall bearish view into December from the bear trend from May and Q4 re-energising of bear pressures.
- We see a downside bias for 37.00; through here aims for the key 36.20 multi-year low.
- But above 39.74 opens risk up to 40.11/26.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- We see a more negative tone with the bearish threat to 36.20.
- Below here targets 33.08 and 30.00/29.95.
What Changes This? Above 44.82 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 46.50.
Monthly Brent Crude Oil Chart