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USDCAD Still Bearish with USDJPY Caught in a Range

USDCAD Chart 2019-02-28

  • We last reviewed the USDCAD and USDJPY Forex rate here on 18th February with a bearish theme for USDCAD and neutral tone for USDJPY and theme viewed remain unchanged
  • The USDCAD currency pair has faltered on rebound efforts through the second half of February, which reinforces the intermediate-term bear trend, previously signalled in January below 1.3157 and intact whilst contained by 1.3375.
  • The USDJPY FX retains a slight upside bias within a short-term consolidation environment and within an intermediate-term range the risk remains skewed towards a bullish breakout, needing however, a push above 111.41.

USDCAD

Bear theme intact

A prod lower Wednesday through minor 1.3151 support to reinforce the Tuesday’s rebound failure back from below 1.3243 resistance (from 1.3236), sustaining negative forces from the prior selloff through 1 the February up trendline, to keep risks lower for Thursday.

The late January plunge below 1.3157 shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bearish, BUT risk is growing for a shift to neutral above 1.3375.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3114/10; break here aims for key 1.3064 and maybe towards 1.3052/44.
  • But above 1.3236/43 opens risk up to 1.3281/95 and maybe 1.3340.

 Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.3000.

  • Lower targets would be 1.2912 and 1.2784.
  • What Changes This? Above 13375 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.3177 1.3236/43** 1.3281/95* 1.3340** 1.3375***
1.3114/10* 1.3064** 1.3052/44* 1.3022/11* 1.3000*

4 Hour Chart

USDCAD Chart 2019-02-28

USDJPY

Rebound bias

A Wednesday setback but holding just above 110.23 support and rebounding from 110.32, to sustain a positive bias to the current sideways consolidation phase, assisted by the recent probe to a new 2019 peak just above 111.13 to 111.23, to keep risks higher into Thursday.

We see an intermediate-term range as 111.41 to 108.47, BUT growing risk for an intermediate-term bullish shift above 111.41.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 111.23; break here quickly aims for key 111.41, maybe towards 111.97.
  • But below 110.32/23 quickly opens risk down towards 109.93 and maybe 109.66, which we would look to try to hold.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 111.41 to 108.47.

  • Upside Risks: Above 111.41 sets a bull trend to aim for 71, 114.55 and 115.00.
  • Downside Risks: Below 108.47 sees a bear trend to target 107.74, 72/55 and 104.78/56.

Resistance and Support:

111.23 111.41*** 111.97 112.64* 113.11/18
110.32/23* 109.93 109.66* 109.40* 108.85*

4 Hour Chart

USDJPY Chart 2019-02-28

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.


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