- An erratic tone for the US Dollar through the US Employment Report on Friday, leaving an indecisive outlook for the US currency into this week.
- USDCAD retains an underlying positive tone within a broader range environment on an intermediate-term outlook.
- USDJPY retains an intermediate-term bearish theme, but in the very near term indicates a consolidation tone.
An erratic tone Friday through the US and Canadian Employment reports, but the dip and the rebound has rejected a negative tone and reinforces the upside risks into Monday.
- We see an upside bias for 1.3455/65; break here aims for 1.2500 and maybe towards 1.3535.
- But below 1.3378 opens risk down to 1.3338/17 area.
-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.3598 and 1.2965.
Range Breakout Challenge
- Upside: Above 1.3598 aims higher for 1.3837/59 and 1.4000/17.
- Downside: Below 1.2965 sees risk lower for 1.2759 and 1.2457.
4 Hour USDCAD Chart
Yet another erratic consolidation Friday before and after the US Employment report (as seen since late March), leaving a neutral tone into Monday (with a slight upside bias).
But, the late March plunge through 111.32 maintains the intermediate-term bearish outlook.
For Today: We see a neutral tone between 111.47/59 and 110.09/08 (with a slight positive bias).
- Break above 111.47/59 aims for 111.94, maybe up to 112.20, which we would look to try to cap.
- Break below 110.09/08 area aims for 110.00, 109.76, possibly 109.48.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- We see a negative tone with the bearish threat through 110.00/109.76.
- Below here targets 108.51 and 105.99.
What Changes This? Above 115.50/63 signals a straight shift from bearish to bullish.
Daily USDJPY Chart