- Despite a corrective move to lower yields by US Treasuries in late April and into early May, the prior April move to higher yields has continued to see the US Dollar strengthen through late April and into May.
- USDJPY broke out from an intermediate-term range above 107.90, as we had highlighted in our previous report. This set a bull theme, reinforced by the recent probe above 110.00, aiming still higher into May.
- The USDCAD April selloff through 1.2612 set an intermediate-term bear trend, but the latter April push above 1.2819 has set an intermediate-term neutral, range theme. BUT now with risks skewed towards a bullish shift above 1.2944.
USDJPY Bull trend re-energized
A Wednesday prod higher through a notable February resistance at 109.78 and also just above the psychological/option level ay 110.00, still building on Monday’s rebound from our 108.96 support, sustaining upside forces the latter April break above key 107.90 resistance, to keep risk higher into Thursday.
The latter April push above 107.90 set an intermediate-term bull trend.
- We see an upside bias for 110.00/04, possibly 110.29, 110.48.
- But below 109.22 aims for 108.96, maybe 108.52.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 110.48.
- Higher targets would be 111.48 and maybe 113.75.
- What Changes This? Below 108.52 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 106.59 is needed for a bear theme.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour USDJPY Chart
USDCAD Upside risks
A resilient consolidation tone Wednesday again holding above the 1.2800/2793 support area, sustaining the positive tone from Tuesday’s push up through the 1.2897/2900 recent range peaks, keeping risks higher Thursday.
The latter April push through key 1.2819 neutralised the intermediate-term bear trend and set an intermediate-term range theme (seen as 1.2944 to 1.2536, with risks skewed for a bull shift).
- We see an upside bias for 1.2914; break here aims for key 1.2944, then 1.2971.
- But below 2897/2900 (which we would look to try to again hold), sees risks to 1.2741.
Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.2944 to 1.2536.
- Upside Risks: Above 1.2944 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.3000, 1.3125 and 1.3347.
- Downside Risks: Below 1.2536 sees a bear trend to target 1.2445, 1.2247 and 1.2000.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour USDCAD Chart