Friday 15th May sees the release of Japanese PPI and Consumer Confidence data, a speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda. Later in the day US data includes the Empire State Manufacturing Index, Capacity Utilization Rate, Industrial Production and Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. This could leave USDJPY vulnerable to a notable price move, with the technical bias aiming lower.
USDJPY Downside Risks in Range
Still broadly sideways, but a still more negative bias emerging since the Tuesday stall back from the 120.23/28 resistance area, the Thursday probe below 119.2 and the rebound stall at 119.34/36.
We look for the non-trend theme to extend into and through mid-May, but with the focus for Friday) to the downside.
- We see a downside bias for 118.86 and 118.78; break here aims for the 118.47/33 area, which we would look to try to hold.
- But above 119.36 opens risk up to 119.74, which we would look to try to cap.
Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the broader range defined by 121.20 and 118.14
Range Breakout Challenge
- Upside: Above 121.20 aims higher for the new 122.02 peak and to a key long term retracement at 122.45.
- Downside: Below 118.15 sees risk lower for 117.17 and 116.64.