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USDJPY Poised into FOMC

Technical Analysis

 

Wednesday 29th April sees the conclusion of the April FOMC Meeting and the FOMC Statement at 2.00 pm ET. The 18th March Meeting Statement produced an extremely volatile reaction across currency and Bond markets. Although the reaction may not be as aggressive on this occasion, we do see potential for a significant move in USDJPY.

USDJPY Set For a Top, or More Positive Range Bias

A negative consolidation theme has extended into this week, but the strong foundations at 118.50, 118.34 and 118.14 are intact and continue to avoid a further downside challenge.

We still see the broader range defined by 121.20 and 118.14 and look for a recovery from ahead of the lower level into month-end, but are wary of a more bearish shift through the FOMC.

For Wednesday (pre-FOMC): We see a neutral tone between 118.50 and 119.66 (with a negative bias)

  • Break above 119.66 aims for 119.90/120.12, which we would look to try to cap.
  • Break below 118.50 aims for 118.33/14, which we would look to try to hold.

Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the broader range defined by 121.20 and 118.14

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 121.20 aims higher for the new 122.02 peak and to a key long term retracement at 122.45.
  • Downside: Below 118.15 sees risk lower for 117.17 and 116.64.

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.


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