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USDJPY stays bearish whilst USDCAD shifts to a bear trend

USDJPY

 

  • Ongoing US Dollar weakness continues to impact on both the USDJPY USDCAD Forex rates.
  • The May “risk off” phase has extended into June in the FX space, with a more dovish tone from Federal Reserve Speakers keeping the US Dollar weak, whilst this has encouraged global equity markets to rebound.
  • The USDJPY continues to extend lower through early 2019 supports
  • The USDCAD FX rate has plunged lower in early June through a key 1.3270 level, to shift the intermediate-term outlook to bearish.

 

USDJPY immediate downside risks intact

An erratic Friday through the US Employment report, but a poke above 109.49 to then see a failure back lower from below the 108.93 resistance (from 108.62) sustains negative forces from the late May/ early June plunge through notable supports at 108.47 and 107.97 (from January 2019), keeping the bias lower into Monday.

The May surrender of 109.66 set an intermediate-term bear trend

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 107.79/74; break here aims for 107.10.
  • But above 108.62 quickly opens risk up to 108.93, maybe towards 109.59.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 107.74, 106.72/55 and 105.00/104.78

  • What Changes This? Above the resistance gap at 109.92 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 110.67 is needed for a bull theme.

4 Hour Chart

USDJPY

 

USDCAD intermediate-term bearish shift

A plunge lower in early June and again Friday to shift the intermediate-term outlook from bullish to neutral and now to bearish through 1.3270.

Furthermore, the plunge lower Friday through the key 1.3270 level keeps the risks lower for Monday.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3258 and 1.3246; break here aims for 1.3206, maybe towards 1.3155.
  • But above 1.3316 opens risk up to 1.3366.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.3270 to 1.3565.

  • Upside Risks: Above 1.3565 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.3665, 1.3794 and 1.4000.
  • Downside Risks: Below 1.3270 sees a bear trend to target 1/.3114/10, 1.3064 and 1.300.

4 Hour ChartUSDCAD

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.


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