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USDJPY Upside Pressures within Range into Japanese Holiday

Technical Analysis

A Japanese Holiday on Monday 4th May could leave a lack of liquidity that may allow for a USDJPY push still higher in the broader range. The shifting bias is for a bullish shift and upside range breakout.

USDJPY Bias Shifts to a More Bullish Tone

The firm rebound from ahead of strong foundations at 118.34 and 118.14, through resistances at 119.43 and 119.58/66 produced a bullish outside Thursday pattern.

The push through 119.90/120.12 has set a more constructive tone into Monday and early May with risk of a test to the upper end of the broader range defined by 121.20 and 118.14.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 120.45, break here aims for 120.85, which we would look to try to cap. Critical resistance is seen at 121.20.
  • But below 119.70 opens risk down to 119.25, which we would look to try to hold.

Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the broader range defined by 121.20 and 118.14.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 121.20 aims higher for the new 122.02 peak and to a key long term retracement at 122.45.
  • Downside: Below 118.15 sees risk lower for 117.17 and 116.64.

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.


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