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A busy Thursday ahead – dominated largely by the US

Thursday’s economic calendar looks set to be dominated almost entirely by data releases from the US.

The lunchtime slot will be filled with information on joblessness in the country. Initial jobless claims for the dates around August 23rd will be out at 12.30pm GMT and are expected to reveal a big upward spike from 209,000 to 215,000.

Continuing jobless claims for the dates around August 16thare out at 12.30pm GMT, with another rise on the cards. It is forecast that this will go from 1,674,000 to 1,680,000.

Preliminary US gross domestic product data for the second quarter of 2019 will be out at 12.30pm GMT. This is expected to drop to 2.4% from a previous 2.5%.

With these three key US data releases all acting as indicators of small downward trends in the economy, it is expected that they will feed into the US Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision – which is due in September. It is forecast by many that there will be another rate cut on the cards here.

However, some of Thursday’s US data might actually show something positive – or at least neutral. Preliminary core personal consumption expenditures data for the second quarter of the year will be out at 12.30pm GMT, and this is expected to show no quarter on quarter change from its previous position of 1.8%.

Pending home sales data for July will be out later on Thursday. This was last recorded at 2.8% but is expected to show a sharp month on month drop to 0.0%.

It will only be towards the end of the day that the US will step out of the spotlight. Japan will be in focus at 11.30pm GMT, when the Tokyo consumer price index for August excluding fresh food will be released. This is predicted by markets to show a drop from 0.9% to 0.7%.

Looking ahead to the last day of the forex week, Australian private sector credit information for July will be first out at 1.30am GMT. This was last recorded year on year at 3.3%.

Australian building permits data for July will be out at 1.30am GMT. Month on month, this is forecast to show a change from -1.2% to 0.0%.

Japanese housing starts information for July will follow at 5am GMT. Year on year, this is due to show a change from 0.3% to -5.4%.

German retail sales data will complete a busy early morning when it is released at 6am GMT. With concerns abounding over the state of the Germany economy and whether or not it can hold water in the fact of a slowdown, this is likely to be closely watched. The release is predicted to show a month on month change from 3.5t% to -1%.

Preliminary Europe-wide core consumer price index information for August will be out at 9am GMT. This was last recorded at 1% and is expected to stay the same.

Canada’s annualised GDP for the second quarter of the year will become available at 12.30pm GMT. This is expected to show a rise from 0.4% to 3%.

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