The Big Picture – “War of Words” Pushes Safe Havens Up

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  • The situation between the US and North Korea worsened as the north sees a tweet from Trump as a “Declaration of War”.
  • This isn’t the first time the North has made claims like these and the reaction was risk-off with safe havens, JPY, CHF and Gold all spiking higher while equites dropped.
  • Following North Koreas rant the USD/JPY fell below 111.80(R1) and now seems to be heading for 111.00(S1). If bulls take charge then there could be another test at 111.80 and may aim for 112.70(R2)

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Turkey threatening Kurds see’s oil prices edge up

  • The surge in oil came after President Erdogan threatened to stop the Iraqi Kurds oil flow to the rest of the world.
  • These comments come after a referendum made by the Iraqi Kurds looking for independence.
  • With the risk of supply disruptions, we see oil supported for a couple of days, with Erdogan likely to follow up on his remarks.
  • The price of WTI went above 51.50(S2) and broke above 52.00(S1). We are unsure about any long-term uptrends but the price has entered the longer-terms sideways trend between 51.50 and 55.30(R3).

Today’s news:

  • In the US we get the Case-Shiller house price index for July, the Conference Board consumer confidence index and the Richmond Fed composite index, both for September.
  • We have five speakers today. We get Fed Chair Yellen, Cleveland President Mester, Atlanta President Bostic and Board Governor Brainard.



  • Support: 111.00 (S1), 110.60 (S2), 110.00 (S3)
  • Resistance: 111.80 (R1), 112.70 (R2), 113.60 (R3)




  • Support: 52.00 (S1), 51.50 (S2), 51.00 (S3)
  • Resistance: 53.00 (R1), 54.00 (R2), 55.30 (R3)

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