Dollar and Pound Close to Significant Low Points in Forex Markets

Jacob Friedman

US and UK currencyThe US dollar continued to hover in the doldrums on Monday and into Tuesday as investors continued to speculate that an interest rate cut was on the way.

A rate cut from the Federal Reserve, which is the US central banking system, is now thought to be a realistic possibility.

As a result, the US dollar index, which measures how the greenback is performing compared to six other global currencies, was close to its lowest point for a few months. It sat at 96.80, which was close to the March low point of 96.46.

This was also fuelled by worries over global trading too. While free trade got a boost yesterday when Donald Trump confirmed that there would be no sanctions on Mexican imports, it remains unclear how the US-China conflict will be resolved.

Outside of the US, the British pound also dipped as the governing Conservative Party began seeking a new leader to replace Prime Minister Theresa May.

The euro was one of the main winners here and was recorded at its highest point for five months compared to the pound. At one stage, one euro was worth £0.8932.

This week looks set to be a busy one on the foreign exchange economic calendar.

Today (Tuesday) there will be a producer price index (excluding food and energy) out of the US covering May. This is due to be released at 12.30pm GMT and is expected to show a change from 0.1% to 0.2%.

Electronic card retail sales data is expected from New Zealand at 10.45pm GMT. Month on month, this is forecast to show a change from 0.6% to 0.7%.

Machinery orders information for April is due out of Japan at 11.50pm GMT. This is expected to show a month on month change from 3.8% to -0.7%.

The Chinese consumer price index for May will be released at 1.30am GMT. Year on year, this is predicted to show a change from 2.5% to 2.7%.

Several central banker speeches are scheduled for later in the day. Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, will speak at 8.15am GMT. There will also be a speech from Luci Ellis, the Assistant Governor (Economic) at the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Dollar traders will want to watch for the US consumer price index data (excluding food and energy) covering May, which is due out at 12.30pm GMT. Year on year, this is expected to show no change from its current position of 2.1%.

Looking ahead to Thursday, the Australian unemployment rate for May will be out at 1.30am GMT. This is forecast to show a change from 5.2% to 5.1%.

The German harmonised index of consumer prices for May will be out at 6am GMT. Month on month, this is not expected to change from its current position of 1.3%.

The Swiss National Bank will release its interest rate decision at 7.30am GMT. This currently stands at -0.75%.

The weekly set of jobless claims will come out of the US at 12.30pm GMT. This is due to show a slight change from 218,000 to 217,000.

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.

Jacob Friedman
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