Foreign exchange market traders prepared themselves for a quiet day on Monday – followed by a big day on Tuesday.
Today (Monday) is expected to see a relatively quiet economic calendar, with the only real highlight on the economic calendar set to be the British Retail Consortium’s like-for-like retail sales data figure which comes out at 11.01pm GMT. This release will cover the month of June and is expected to show a change from -3% to +0.8%.
It will be Tuesday where the real nub of the action lies in the first half of this week.
There’ll be a wide range of central banker speeches, especially from the Federal Reserve. Traders who are concerned about the possibility of rate cuts at the next Fed meeting at the end of the month will no doubt watch these closely.
The Fed’s chair, Jerome Powell, will speak at 12.45pm GMT. At 6pm GMT, two other members of the Fed’s Open Market Committee or its Board of Governors will speak. Raphael W. Bostic, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, will speak at the same time as Randal Keith Quarles, Vice Chair for Supervision.
There will also be some important data out of both China and Canada on Tuesday. At 2am GMT, there’ll be an M2 money supply data release covering the month of June from China. This is predicted to show a change from 8.5% to 8.4%, year on year.
There’ll also be information on construction firm Canada, due at around midday. Housing starts information for the month of June will be out at 12.15pm GMT. This was last recorded at 202,300.
Building permits information for the month of May will be out too, this time at 12.30pm GMT. This is expected to show a change from 14.7% to 1.3%.
Looking ahead to Wednesday, China will be back on the agenda as the country’s consumer price index for the month of June comes out at 1.30am GMT.
Year on year, this is expected to show no change from its previous position of 2.7%.
At 7am GMT, there will be a non-monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank.
Later in the day, there will be some insights into the performance of the British economy. At 8.30am GMT, there’ll be a manufacturing production release covering the month of May which is predicted to show a month on month change from -3.9% to +2.5%.
Industrial production figures covering the same month are expected to show a change from -2.7% to +1.5%.
Overall British gross domestic product (GDP) information covering May will come out at 8.30am GMT. This is expected to show a month on month change from -0.4% to +0.3%.
However, it will be the Canadian central bank, the Bank of Canada, that will steal the show that day. It is due to announce its interest rate decision at 2pm GMT, and this is forecast to hold firm at 1.75%.