Slight rise for the dollar ahead of jobs figures

David Hobart

The US dollar managed to pull back from the brink on Thursday and into Friday ahead of crucial data on jobs which is due out later in the day.

However, this firming only came after a period of protracted drops.

The dollar index, which monitors the performance of the currency in comparison to many other major currencies from across the globe, lost almost an entire percentage point late in the week.

On average, it has lost 0.3% off its value over the course of the week.

This was a fall from grace for the currency, which had previously been seen at its highest point since mid-2017 at the very start of the week.

The next big challenge for the currency will be a day full of economic releases, which is scheduled for Friday.

The nonfarm payrolls release will be out, while other broader monthly indicators will also be released.

According to analysts, it’s possible that the nonfarm payrolls measurement in particular could reveal underlying weaknesses in an economy which has been beset by increased worries of economic stagnation.

Economists are predicting that the jobs index will go up by around 145,000 – which is well beneath the averaged-out performance of the last year, which is closer to 175,000.

Overall, there is a general fear that the US could be at risk of going into recession – a move which, if it transpired, would indicate serious problems for both the country and the global economy.

Other currencies managed to surge ahead in the wake of the dollar’s problems.

The single European currency continues to face concerns about the economic health of some of its major members, but the currency went up by a tiny sliver, a tenth of a percentage point, in its pair with the US dollar.

It reached $1.0970 at one stage, which marked a distinctive rise from its previous doldrums position of $1.0879.

The Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar both managed to carry on as previously.

This was largely due to a turn away from currencies which are favourable during risky times: the Antipodean currencies tend to perform better when there is a move away from risk aversion.

Another interesting move over the course of Friday was the decision of six former members of the European Central Bank to come out and criticise Mario Draghi, the bank’s current president.

The six released a document in which they claimed that Draghi’s decision to pursue a so-called “easy money” policy could have long-term effects.

“As former central bankers and as European citizens, we are witnessing the ECB’s ongoing crisis mode with growing concern”, they wrote.

They specifically criticised what they perceived to be a targeting of savers who were trying to accumulate cash wealth.

“The suspicion that behind this measure lies an intent to protect heavily indebted governments from a rise in interest rates is becoming increasingly well founded”, they added.

Draghi is set to leave office in the coming months and will be replaced by Christine Lagarde.

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David Hobart
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