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Weekly Forex Market Forecasts for January 16th – January 20th

Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of January 16th – January 20th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

Monday, January 16th

All Day USD Bank Holiday

6:30pm GBP BOE Governor Carney speaks (hawkish = good for currency)

9:00pm NZD NZIER Business Confidence (last 26, > good for currency)

Tuesday, January 17th

Day 1 ALL WEF Annual Meetings (hawkish = good for currency)

9:30am GBP CPI (1.4% expected, > good for currency)

9:30am GBP PPI Input (2.2% expected, > good for currency)

9:30am GBP RPI (2.3% expected, > good for currency)

10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (18.9 expected, > good for currency)

1:30pm USD Empire State Manufacturing Index (8.1 expected, > good for currency)

1:45pm USD FOMC Member Dudley speaks (hawkish = good for currency)

Tentative NZD GDT Price Index (last -3.9%, > good for currency)

Tentative GBP Prime Minister May speaks (hawkish = good for currency)

3:00pm USD FOMC Member Brainard speaks (hawkish = good for currency)

3:00pm USD Treasury Secretary Lew speaks (hawkish = good for currency)

Wednesday, January 18th

Day 2 ALL WEF Annual Meetings (hawkish = good for currency)

9:30am GBP Average Earnings Index (2.6% expected, > good for currency)

9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change (4.6K expected, < good for currency)

9:30am GBP Unemployment Rate (4.8% expected, < good for currency)

10:00am EUR EZ Final CPI (1.1% expected, > good for currency)

1:30pm USD CPI (0.3% expected, > good for currency)

1:30pm USD Core CPI (0.2% expected, > good for currency)

2:15pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate (75.6% expected, > good for currency)

2:15pm USD Industrial Production (0.8% expected, > good for currency)

3:00pm CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report (hawkish = good for currency)

3:00pm CAD BOC Rate Statement (hawkish = good for currency)

3:00pm CAD Overnight Rate (unchanged at 0.50% expected, > good for currency)

4:00pm USD FOMC Member Kashkari speaks (hawkish = good for currency)

4:15pm CAD BOC Press Conference (hawkish = good for currency)

8:00pm USD Federal Chair Yellen speaks (hawkish = good for currency)

Thursday, January 19th

12:30am AUD Employment Change (10.2K expected, > good for currency)

12:30am AUD Unemployment Rate (5.7% expected, < good for currency)

8:15am CHF PPI (0.2% expected, > good for currency)

Day 3 ALL WEF Annual Meetings (hawkish = good for currency)

12:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate (unchanged at 0.00% expected, > good for currency)

1:30pm CAD Manufacturing Sales (0.2% expected, > good for currency)

1:30pm CAD Foreign Securities Purchases (10.23B expected, > good for currency)

1:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference (hawkish = good for currency)

1:30pm USD Building Permits (1.22M expected, > good for currency)

1:30pm USD Philly Federal Manufacturing Index (16.3 expected, > good for currency)

1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (252K expected, < good for currency)

1:30pm USD Housing Starts (1.19M expected, > good for currency)

4:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories (last 4.1M, > good for currency)

Friday, January 20th

1:00am USD Federal Chair Yellen speaks (hawkish = good for currency)

2:00am CNY GDP (6.7% expected)

2:00am CNY Industrial Production (6.1% expected)

2:00am CNY Fixed Asset Investment (8.3% expected)

2:00am CNY NBS Press Conference (hawkish = good for currency)

Day 4 ALL WEF Annual Meetings (hawkish = good for currency)

9:30am GBP Retail Sales (-0.1% expected, > good for currency)

1:30pm CAD CPI (last -0.4%, > good for currency)

1:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales (last 1.4%, > good for currency)

1:30pm CAD Retail Sales (last 1.1%, > good for currency)

2:00pm USD FOMC Member Harker speaks (hawkish = good for currency)                                                                                         

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EURUSD: Lower

Resistance:

Initial: 1.0616/20, 1.0652/57, 1.0669, 1.0684/89, 1.0707/08, 1.0736, 1.0762/95, 1.0804/09, 1.0818/33, 1.0847/58, 1.0866, 1.0872/73, 1.0882/86, 1.0896, 1.0911/17, 1.0951/70, 1.0983/86, 1.0991/98, 1.1001/10, 1.1015/28, 1.1038/60, 1.1066/72, 1.1083, 1.1091/97, 1.1103/04, 1.1111/59, 1.1164/81, 1.1186/1.1204, 1.1211/21, 1.1233/36, 1.1244/83, 1.1294/1.1303, 1.1317/18, 1.1322/48, 1.1354/66, 1.1373/97, 1.1415/64, 1.1483, 1.1494/98, 1.1533, 1.1615, 1.1642, 1.1713, 1.1753, 1.1866/77, 1.1900/01, 1.1938, 1.1975, 1.2041, 1.2133, 1.2143, 1.2162/64, 1.2219, 1.2241/55, 1.2270/72, 1.2323/33, 1.2357/62, 1.2381/94, 1.2407/39, 1.2455, 1.2494/96, 1.2500/01, 1.2514/19, 1.2531, 1.2545, 1.2569/70, 1.2588/89, 1.2605, 1.2613, 1.2623/25, 1.2661/63, 1.2676, 1.2692/98, 1.2715, 1.2744/54, 1.2791/1.2805, 1.2815/21, 1.2834/79, 1.2900/04, 1.2919/21 and 1.2978/98.

Above: 1.3000/03, 1.3047, 1.3059/66, 1.3077, 1.3093/1.3109, 1.3126/30, 1.3152/65, 1.3172/77, 1.3187/1.3206, 1.3220/42, 1.3294/99, 1.3305/08, 1.3318/24, 1.3332/35, 1.3344/53, 1.3366, 1.3376/89, 1.3398/1.3416, 1.3432/44, 1.3451, 1.3473/82, 1.3489/1.3524, 1.3538, 1.3546/88, 1.3597, 1.3602/15, 1.3621/31, 1.3639/50, 1.3663/76, 1.3682/86, 1.3685/1.3710, 1.3714/16, 1.3731/39, 1.3748, 1.3758/74, 1.3784/98, 1.3807, 1.3810/20, 1.3824, 1.3832/36, 1.3845/54, 1.3864, 1.3875/78, 1.3888/92, 1.3905/14, 1.3937, 1.3947, 1.3966/69, 1.3993/1.4000, 1.4246, 1.4500/17, 1.4695 and 1.4939.

Support:                                 

Initial: 1.0591/95, 1.0565/68, 1.0551, 1.0517/24, 1.0504, 1.0498/99, 1.0461, 1.0453, 1.0371, 1.3065, 1.0351, 1.0339, 1.0206 and 1.0104.

Below: 0.9607/21, 0.9599, 0.9451, 0.9338, 0.8840, 0.8822/28, 0.8594 and 0.8562.

USDJPY: Higher

Resistance:

Initial: 114.12, 114.55/65, 114.73/87, 115.06, 115.56/58, 115.85, 115.92, 116.03/14, 116.28, 116.50/54, 116.82/117.02, 117.23, 117.43, 117.52, 117.65/80, 117.93/99, 118.04/05, 118.23/45, 118.60/67, 118.85/97, 119.01/06, 119.21/28, 119.37/46, 119.61/65, 119.80 and 119.95.

Above: 120.00/10, 120.17/27, 120.34/47, 120.56, 120.62/65, 120.73/82, 121.02, 121.19/23, 121.27/38, 121.48/49, 121.62/68, 121.80/84, 121.96, 122.01, 122.22/30, 122.44, 122.60/68, 122.87, 123.12, 123.25, 123.42/49, 123.71/78, 123.95, 124.05, 124.11/14, 124.22, 124.35/38, 124.43/46, 125.06, 125.27, 125.40, 125.67/75, 126.17, 126.41, 126.90 and 135.19.

Support:

Initial: 113.98, 113.89, 113.75/79, 113.38, 113.12, 112.98, 112.86, 112.30, 112.15, 112.01, 111.78/88, 111.60/66, 111.35/44, 110.97/111.03, 110.66, 110.58, 110.39/47, 110.26, 110.08, 109.89/90, 109.72, 109.53/54, 109.41/45, 109.10, 108.98, 108.71, 108.54, 108.42/46, 108.22/24, 108.00, 107.83/89, 107.62/66, 107.48, 107.38/39, 107.18, 107.05, 106.94, 106.72/82, 106.54, 106.31/36, 106.15/25, 105.70, 105.52/59, 105.41/43, 105.30/33, 105.18, 105.05, 104.83/91, 104.63/68, 104.47, 104.31/36, 104.07/26, 103.91/98, 103.82, 103.73/75, 103.54/58, 103.37/43, 103.30, 103.16, 102.92/103.08, 102.49/85, 102.33/40, 102.24/26, 102.13/14, 101.90/102.04, 101.60/83, 101.50/56, 101.41/45, 101.30/32, 101.08/27, 100.82/92, 100.75, 100.60/67, 100.38/48, 100.19/22, 99.93/100.09, 99.64/66, 99.53, 99.40, 99.25, 99.13/14, 98.84/99.00, 98.63/72, 98.48/53, 98.28, 98.20, 98.08, 97.75/83, 97.49/63, 96.90/97.05, 96.81, 96.65/70, 96.55/56 and 96.05.

Below: 95.79/80, 95.44, 94.90/95.07, 94.87, 94.55, 94.19, 94.05, 93.76, 93.78 93.68, 93.50, 93.17, 92.77/95, 92.14/30, 91.19, 90.85, 90.20/32, 89.40/66, 88.05, 87.95/99 and 87.79.

GBPUSD: Lower

Resistance:

Initial: 1.2037, 1.2081/88, 1.2113, 1.2131/35, 1.2170, 1.2199/1.2200, 1.2226/28, 1.2260, 1.2271, 1.2301, 1.2315/24, 1.2332, 1.2351, 1.2375, 1.2385/87, 1.2431, 1.2476, 1.2511, 1.2530, 1.2548/56, 1.2673, 1.2727/36, 1.2774, 1.2794, 1.2849, 1.2863/79, 1.2902, 1.2914, 1.2944/45, 1.2955, 1.2991/96, 1.3020, 1.3033, 1.3056/63, 1.3078/79, 1.3093, 1.3104, 1.3119/20, 1.3137, 1.3204, 1.3227, 1.3238, 1.3272/89, 1.3300, 1.3314, 1.3339/46, 1.3352, 1.3371, 1.3415, 1.3444, 1.3477/80, 1.3501, 1.3532, 1.3561, 1.3653, 1.3683, 1.3835/40, 1.3853, 1.3877, 1.4000/11, 1.4041, 1.4052/56, 1.4079, 1.4089, 1.4108, 1.4130, 1.4148, 1.4170/79, 1.4232/34, 1.4247/51, 1.4298, 1.4321/25, 1.4331, 1.4345/51, 1.4361, 1.4374, 1.4385, 1.4396, 1.4406/18, 1.4432/44, 1.4451/72, 1.4513, 1.4529/34, 1.4546, 1.4581, 1.4603, 1.4615, 1.4634/37, 1.4659/69, 1.4692/98, 1.4725/38, 1.4768, 1.4785, 1.4812, 1.4830, 1.4856, 1.4868, 1.4872, 1.4884, 1.4913, 1.4927, 1.4943/50, 1.4966/67, 1.4985/88, 1.5007, 1.5013/17, 1.5026/33, 1.5053/56, 1.5072/77, 1.5081, 1.5092, 1.5101/06, 1.5123, 1.5130/36, 1.5152/64, 1.5173/80, 1.5185/87, 1.5195/99, 1.5208/23, 1.5236/41, 1.5260/68, 1.5276, 1.5293, 1.5304/05, 1.5313/51, 1.5382/84, 1.5392, 1.5403/40, 1.5457/58, 1.5467, 1.5476/85, 1.5496/99, 1.5505/08, 1.5514/20, 1.5529/33, 1.5538/51, 1.5561/68, 1.5584/96, 1.5601/19, 1.5624/27, 1.5646, 1.5656/58, 1.5669/74, 1.5683/92, 1.5714/17, 1.5725, 1.5750, 1.5763, 1.5775/89, 1.5803/07, 1.5817, 1.5825, 1.5844, 1.5853, 1.5874/77, 1.5886/93, 1.5900/27, 1.5948/61, 1.5975/94, 1.6001/08, 1.6051/66, 1.6071/83, 1.6096/98, 1.6109/21, 1.6130/36, 1.6155, 1.6161, 1.6177/83, 1.6195/98, 1.6204/16, 1.6222/26, 1.6237/46, 1.6251/62, 1.6280/90, 1.6298/1.6309, 1.6336, 1.6348, 1.6357, 1.6376, 1.6380/83, 1.6394, 1.6400, 1.6415/18, 1.6441/44, 1.6458/65, 1.6484, and 1.6496.

Above: 1.6516, 1.6524, 1.6534, 1.6548, 1.6576/86, 1.6592, 1.6611/17, 1.6624, 1.6640/56, 1.6665/67, 1.6683, 1.6692/98, 1.6716/24, 1.6730/37, 1.6745, 1.6755, 1.6765/68, 1.6777, 1.6785, 1.6800/02, 1.6812, 1.6819/22, 1.6831/44, 1.6874/87, 1.6902/09, 1.6919/20, 1.6951, 1.6960, 1.6995, 1.7000, 1.7010, 1.7035, 1.7042/51, 1.7058/62, 1.7084, 1.7094/99, 1.7107, 1.7130, 1.7167, 1.7176/78, 1.7190 and 1.7440.

Support:

Initial: 1.1991, 1.1954 and 1.1844.

Below: 1.0520.

AUDUSD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:

Initial: 0.7468/76, 0.7486/92, 0.7497/0.7509, 0.7517/25, 0.7532, 0.7544/59, 0.7565/72, 0.7580/98, 0.7607/09, 0.7614/18, 0.7625/36, 0.7642/48, 0.7653/57, 0.7663/81, 0.7688/96, 0.7700/10, 0.7718/25, 0.7731/40, 0.7748/64, 0.7772/84, 0.7791/92, 0.7817, 0.7825, 0.7834/88, 0.7912, 0.7919, 0.7950, 0.7988, 0.8008, 0.8020, 0.8024/34, 0.8051, 0.8066/87, 0.8106, 0.8121, 0.8138, 0.8156, 0.8172, 0.8203/14, 0.8223, 0.8233, 0.8294, 0.8307, 0.8375, 0.8416, 0.8473/84, 0.8512, 0.8541, 0.8578, 0.8590, 0.8641, 0.8651/62, 0.8693, 0.8702, 0.8729, 0.8747/54, 0.8760/73, 0.8784, 0.8812, 0.8819/25, 0.8842/52, 0.8857/61, 0.8869, 0.8887/97, 0.8906/12, 0.8918/20, 0.8923/36, 0.8951/57, 0.8967/69, 0.8981/87, 0.8994/0.9010, 0.9035, 0.9041, 0.9042/48, 0.9054/57, 0.9061/66, 0.9072/79, 0.9102, 0.9110/19, 0.9127/37, 0.9147, 0.9162/67, 0.9179/89, 0.9200/08, 0.9214/26, 0.9232/74, 0.9286/94, 0.9304, 0.9311, 0.9328/34, 0.9343/53, 0.9359, 0.9386/0.9410, 0.9420/24, 0.9428/33, 0.9440/47, 0.9455/57, 0.9469 and 0.9483/86.

Above: 0.9500, 0.9524/27, 0.9536/42, 0.9571, 0.9585, 0.9592, 0.9620, 0.9640, 0.9664, 0.9676, 0.9689/96, 0.9710, 0.9732, 0.9757, 0.9791/94, 0.9841/96, 0.9900, 0.9925/83, 1.0000/18, 1.0052, 1.0099/1.0100, 1.0114/17, 1.0148/51, 1.0165/77 and 1.0181/82.

Support:

Initial: 0.7452, 0.7440/46, 0.7413/20, 0.7405/07, 0.7393, 0.7362/79, 0.7356, 0.7337/43, 0.7310/26, 0.7295/0.7303, 0.7278/87, 0.7265/71, 0.7241/58, 0.7234, 0.7219/26, 0.7214/15, 0.7203/07, 0.7197, 0.7181/85, 0.7172/75, 0.7152/62, 0.7140/48, 0.7108, 0.7098, 0.7083, 0.7062/69, 0.7047, 0.7030/34, 0.7021/24, 0.7001/02, 0.6945, 0.6936/37, 0.6918, 0.6907, 0.6852, 0.6826, 0.6773, 0.6753, 0.6697, 0.6670 and 0.6555.

Below: 0.6339/41, 0.6317, 0.5804, 0.5795, 0.5730, 0.5645, 0.5490, 0.5399, 0.5228, 0.4815 and 0.4773.

USDCAD: Higher

Resistance:

Initial: 1.3143/47, 1.3161/66, 1.3174/90, 1.3194/99, 1.3212/17, 1.3233/35, 1.3241/53, 1.3260/64, 1.3270/83, 1.3293/95, 1.3305/16, 1.3323/25, 1.3352/57, 1.3367/77, 1.3385/99, 1.3404, 1.3415/16, 1.3432/34, 1.3456/72, 1.3504, 1.3524, 1.3534/36, 1.3556/63, 1.3586/88, 1.3597/1.3606, 1.3638, 1.3652/61, 1.3672, 1.3687, 1.3756, 1.3780, 1.3813/14, 1.3845, 1.3858, 1.3872, 1.3910, 1.3939/46 and 1.3992/1.4015.

Above: 1.4035, 1.4101, 1.4113, 1.4195, 1.4277, 1.4324, 1.4430, 1.4605/24, 1.4689/93, 1.4894, 1.5024, 1.5065, 1.5150, 1.5182, 1.5322, 1.5632, 1.5830, 1.5855, 1.6054 and 1.6196.

Support:

Initial: 1.3129/39, 1.3115/19, 1.3101, 1.3097/99, 1.3080/89, 1.3062/69, 1.3047/54, 1.3037/39, 1.3021/28, 1.2994/1.3014, 1.2981/89, 1.2964/75, 1.2950/57, 1.2935, 1.2922, 1.2900/14, 1.2884, 1.2875, 1.2860/64, 1.2856, 1.2830/36, 1.2821/22, 1.2797/98, 1.2770/78, 1.2757/62, 1.2742, 1.2716, 1.2693/96, 1.2677, 1.2654/62, 1.2631, 1.2625, 1.2615, 1.2613, 1.2609, 1.2585/92, 1.2563, 1.2537, 1.2497, 1.2471, 1.2456/61, 1.2448/58, 1.2436, 1.2421, 1.2406, 1.2386, 1.2378, 1.2361/66, 1.2351, 1.2333, 1.2287, 1.2244, 1.2126, 1.2091, 1.2045, 1.2030, 1.2016, 1.1976, 1.1933, 1.1886, 1.1872/75, 1.1841, 1.1802, 1.1794/96, 1.1723/29, 1.1670/72, 1.1666, 1.1547/90, 1.1475, 1.1457/65, 1.1443/47, 1.1391/92, 1.1384, 1.1331/39, 1.1310/12, 1.1289/95, 1.1263/77, 1.1254, 1.1221/29, 1.1190/94, 1.1168/73, 1.1158, 1.1152, 1.1141, 1.1116/32, 1.1102/09, 1.1097/99, 1.1081/89, 1.1069/70, 1.1030/53, 1.0982/1.1001, 1.0962/66, 1.0954/59, 1.0941/45, 1.0934, 1.0925/28, 1.0915, 1.0903/09, 1.0894, 1.0873/86, 0852/59, 1.0849, 1.0839/40, 1.0820/27, 1.0813, 1.0793/96, 1.0742/85, 1.0736, 1.0726, 1.0717, 1.0702/09, 1.0693, 1.0668/79, 1.0646/60, 1.0619/29, 1.0608,1.0580/87, 1.0567/71, 1.0558/59, 1.0546, 1.0519/22 and 1.0506.

Below: 1.0496/1.0502, 1.0471/87, 1.0459, 1.0441/44, 1.0414/18, 1.0401/04, 1.0390/92, 1.0379, 1.0355/68, 1.0333, 1.0324, 1.0309/12, 1.0283/1.0305, 1.0270/76, 1.0262, 1.0244/55, 1.0233/35, 1.0199/1.0226, 1.0172/82, 1.0165, 1.0151/56, 1.0148, 1.0128/42, 1.0103/05, 1.0081/99, 1.0050/56, 1.0029/34, 1.0018, 1.0012, 0.9993/98, 0.9984, 0.9969, 0.9945/60, 0.9931, 0.9922, 0.9902/07, 0.9899, 0.9858, 0.9814/26, 0.9724/99, 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9631, 0.9525, 0.9445 and 0.9405.

NZDUSD: Lower

Resistance:

Initial: 0.7102/14, 0.7138/47, 0.7162/69, 0.7174/83, 0.7195/0.7222, 0.7227/38, 0.7251/54, 0.7265, 0.7273/76, 0.7296, 0.7304/05, 0.7310/15, 0.7319/22, 0.7328/42, 0.7357/62, 0.7367/68, 0.7378, 0.7394, 0.7402/04, 0.7419/20, 0.7433, 0.7440/47, 0.7455/59, 0.7467, 0.7483/0.7500, 0.7528/55, 0.7585/95, 0.7609, 0.7605/59, 0.7679/97, 0.7705/35, 0.7751/58, 0.7760/64, 0.7763, 0.7779/83, 0.7791/95, 0.7804/08, 0.7819/29, 0.7838/48, 0.7856/57, 0.7863/78, 0.7888, 0.7903/06, 0.7925/37, 0.7967, 0.7989/0.8013, 0.8030, 0.8040, 0.8049/60, 0.8075/82, 0.8100/09, 0.8114/37, 0.8147/53, 0.8160/76, 0.8186, 0.8195/97, 0.8204/14, 0.8221/41, 0.8250/55, 0.8263, 0.8268/71, 0.8280, 0.8285/87, 0.8291/95, 0.8302/16, 0.8322/66, 0.8376, 0.8389, 0.8406, 0.8413, 0.8421/61, 0.8472/79, 0.8487/89 and 0.8499.

Above: 0.8504/18, 0.8523/37, 0.8542/53, 0.8560/61, 0.8571/78, 0.8584/90, 0.8602/05, 0.8633/41, 0.8647/53, 0.8660/67, 0.8671/74, 0.8693/0.8700, 0.8712/18, 0.8734, 0.8744, 0.8764/77, 0.8789, 0.8792, 0.8821, 0.8834 and 0.8840.

Support:

Initial: 0.7085/91, 0.7076/79, 0.7065/69, 0.7034/59, 0.7014, 0.6996, 0.6978/84, 0.6947/70, 0.6923, 0.6890/95, 0.6881/84, 0.6872/76, 0.6857/63, 0.6828/45, 0.6804/21, 0.6790, 0.6784, 0.6771/73, 0.6750/60, 0.6734/38, 0.6720/24, 0.6706/13, 0.6693/96, 0.6666/85, 0.6639/41, 0.6616/20, 0.6584/0.6609, 0.6585, 0.6571/73, 0.6556/63, 0.6538/43, 0.6529, 0.6519 and 0.6504/07.

Below: 0.6491/97, 0.6466, 0.6447/55, 0.6435, 0.6423/27, 0.6415, 0.6400/07, 0.6396, 0.6379/88, 0.6345, 0.6287, 0.6269, 0.6254, 0.6248, 0.6242, 0.6234, 0.6022, 0.5991, 0.5926, 0.5914, 0.5682, 0.5673, 0.5608, 0.5637/41, 0.5480 and 0.5324.

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.


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