Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of November 28th through December 2nd
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of November 28th through December 2nd, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Monday, November 28th
9:00am EUR M3 Money Supply 4.4% versus 5.0% expected. The currency rose.
2:00pm EUR ECB President Draghi said that, “For both the euro area and the United Kingdom, the Single Market has been a fundamental asset and a positive sum game. Bringing together European economies has allowed the European Union to reap efficiency gains and better satisfy demand. For sectors such as financial services, the ability to serve an EU-wide, interconnected market is a key factor of success.” The currency rose.
4:00pm EUR ECB President Draghi said that, “If, in the long run, the risk of a less-open U.K. economy in terms of trade, migration and foreign direct investment were to materialize, there would be a negative impact on innovation and competition and, thus, productivity and potential output. Such developments would first and foremost weigh on the U.K. economy.” The currency rose.
11:30pm JPY Household Spending -0.4% versus -1.0% expected. The currency rose.
Tuesday, November 29th
1:00am CAD BOC Governor Poloz said that, “This process has been gradual, more gradual than we would like, but based on the progress recorded to date, we have every confidence that the economy will find its way back to full output. As these new sources of growth add up, we will gradually absorb our excess capacity some time around mid-2018, and inflation will converge on our 2-per-cent target from below.” The currency rose.
All Day EUR German Preliminary CPI 0.1% versus 0.1% expected. The currency rose.
8:00am EUR Spanish Flash CPI 0.7% versus 0.5% expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Net Lending to Individuals 4.9B versus 4.8B expected. The currency rose.
1:15pm USD FOMC Member Dudley said that, “I don’t need to elaborate on all of the struggles Puerto Rico continues to face. The Island has been suffering from a vicious cycle. As employment declines, people move to the mainland to find jobs. Accordingly, economic activity and tax revenues decline, forcing the government to raise taxes and cut spending, which further reduces employment and prompts still more residents to move.” The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD Current Account -18.3B versus -16.4B expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Preliminary GDP 3.2% versus 3.0% expected. The currency rose.
3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 107.1 versus 101.3 expected. The currency rose.
5:40pm USD FOMC Member Powell said that, “All economic forecasts are subject to considerable uncertainty. There is always a wide range of plausible outcomes for important economic variables, including the federal funds rate. In her remarks at Jackson Hole in August, Chair Yellen showed the median path for the federal funds rate from the June SEP surrounded by a 70 percent confidence interval based on the historical accuracy of private and government forecasts.” The currency rose.
8:00pm NZD RBNZ Financial Stability Report noted that, “The Reserve Bank has asked the Minister of Finance to agree to add a Debt to Income (DTI) tool to the Memorandum of Understanding on macro-prudential policy. While the Bank is not proposing use of such a tool at this time, financial stability risks can build up quickly and restrictions on high-DTI lending could be warranted if housing market imbalances were to deteriorate further.” The currency rose.
10:00pm NZD RBNZ Governor Wheeler said that, “Damage from the magnitude 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake on 14 November is being assessed. While it is too early to estimate the cost to insurers, the sector is well positioned in terms of catastrophe reinsurance cover and capital buffers. The Reserve Bank continues to make progress on a number of regulatory initiatives, including a review of bank capital requirements, amendments to the outsourcing policy for banks and a dashboard approach to quarterly disclosure.” The currency rose.
Wednesday, November 30th
12:00am NZD ANZ Business Confidence 20.5 versus last 24.5. The currency rose.
12:30am AUD Building Approvals -12.6% versus 2.2% expected. The currency rose.
7:00am EUR German Retail Sales 2.4% versus 1.0% expected. The currency rose.
7:00am GBP Bank Stress Test Results: Ewen Stevenson, the chief financial officer at RBS, one of the banks that failed the stress test noted that, “We have taken further important steps in 2016 to enhance our capital strength, but we recognize that we have more to do to restore the bank’s stress resilience including resolving outstanding legacy issues”. The currency rose.
7:00am GBP BOE Financial Stability Report noted that, “Moreover, challenges to the resilience of parts of the euro-area banking system remain. Additional risks to the euro area could emerge as a consequence of the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union. Banks located in the UK supply over half of debt and equity issuance by continental firms, and account for over three quarters of foreign exchange and derivatives activity in the EU.” The currency rose.
8:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 102.2 versus 104.3 expected. The currency rose.
8:55am EUR German Unemployment Change -5K versus -6K expected. The currency rose.
All Day ALL OPEC Meetings: Dr. Mohammed Bin Saleh Al-Sada, Qatar’s Minister of Energy and Industry and President of the OPEC Conference noted that, “This persistent stock overhang, as well as the recent price volatility, has sharpened our minds. All producers now understand the gravity of the situation. And I should add that all consumers should comprehend the gravity of the situation too. It is also important to underscore that we need to not only consider the short-term, but the medium- and long-term as well. Of course, the short-term directs our current thinking, but as we all know, this is very much a medium- to long-term business.” The currency rose.
10:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate 0.6% versus 0.6% expected. The currency rose.
10:00am EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate 0.8% versus 0.8% expected. The currency rose.
12:30pm EUR ECB President Draghi said that, “In conclusion, therefore, the euro area’s poor productivity appears a result of poor diffusion of technology from the frontier to other firms, and from an inefficient allocation of capital and labour to relatively low productivity firms. Such factors are fortunately more receptive to structural reforms than innovation, which is harder to institute. There are two main areas that need to be addressed.” The currency rose.
1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Payrolls 216K versus 161K expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD GDP 0.3% versus 0.1% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD RMPI 3.3% versus 3.2% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Core PCE Price Index 0.1% versus 0.1% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Personal Spending 0.3% versus 0.5% expected. The currency rose.
2:45pm USD Chicago PMI 57.6 versus 52.1 expected. The currency rose.
3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales 0.1% versus 0.3% expected. The currency rose.
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.9M versus 0.7M expected. The currency rose.
4:00pm EUR German Buba President Weidmann said that, “The crisis and its economic implications have led us to realize how closely our economies are linked. We must not forget that. Even if a growing number of people do not question the merits of open markets and trade across national borders.” The currency rose.
4:45pm USD FOMC Member Powell said that, “In my view, communications should do more to emphasize the uncertainty that surrounds all economic forecasts, should downplay short-term tactical questions such as the timing of the next rate increase, and should focus the public’s attention instead on the considerations that go into making policy across the range of plausible paths for the economy.” The currency rose.
Thursday, December 1st
12:30am AUD Private Capital Expenditure -4.0% versus -2.8% expected. The currency rose.
1:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI 51.7 versus 51.0 expected.
1:00am CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.7 versus last 54.0.
1:45am CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 50.9 versus 50.9 expected.
8:15am EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 54.5 versus 53.7 expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 53.4 versus 54.4 expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 268K versus 252K expected. The currency rose.
3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 53.2 versus 52.1 expected. The currency rose.
Friday, December 2nd
12:30am AUD Retail Sales 0.5% versus 0.3% expected. The currency rose.
8:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Change 24.8K versus -25.8K expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Construction PMI 52.8 versus 52.3 expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD Employment Change -16.5K versus 43.9K expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD Unemployment Rate 7.0% versus 7.0% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD Labor Productivity 1.1% versus -0.3% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Average Hourly Earnings 0.2% versus 0.4% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Non-Farm Payrolls 177K versus 161K expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Unemployment Rate 4.9% versus 4.9% expected. The currency rose.
1:45pm USD FOMC Member Brainard said that, “Since the crisis, the Federal Reserve and other regulatory agencies have implemented a number of new rules to strengthen capital, liquidity, and risk management at the largest financial institutions. Many of these rules are “through the cycle” safeguards, meaning that they impose structurally higher standards. In addition, when the risks to financial stability increase, the Federal Reserve, in consultation with the other banking agencies, can temporarily increase the amount of capital that large banks are required to hold in order to build resilience at these institutions and to restrain undue risk-taking on a cyclical basis.” The currency rose.
Technical Recap for the Majors This Week
Forecast: Mildly higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.06042 open to a 1.06721 close.
Actual: Higher from a 112.748 open to 113.69 close.
Forecast: Mildly higher
Actual: Higher from a 1.24431 open to a 1.26792 close.
Actual: Mildly higher from a 0.74419 open to 0.74523 close.
Actual: Lower from a 1.34887 open to a 1.32884 close.
Actual: Mildly higher from a 0.70826 open to a 0.71465 close.
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