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Weekly Forex Market Recap for the Week Ending November 11th

Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of November 7th through November 11th

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of November 7th through November 11th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.

Sunday, November 6th  

8:00am CAD Daylight Saving Time Shift

8:00am USD Daylight Saving Time Shift

Monday, November 7th         

8:00am EUR German Factory Orders -0.6% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.

9:30am GBP Halifax HPI 1.4% versus 0.3% expected. The currency fell.

All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings: President of the Eurogroup, J.Dijsselbloem noted that, “At the next meeting of the Eurogroup we will spend more time on Greece. This will be on the 5 December, when we will know more about the work the ESM is doing on the possible debt relief measures for the short term. We will hear more from the ongoing 2nd review to get more sense of some of the important reforms that are part of that. Labour market reform, social system reform, the fiscal trajectory for the coming years, particularly the next years budget and the 2018 budget.” The currency fell.

Tuesday, November 8th

3:32am CNY Trade Balance 325B versus 366B expected.

10:30am GBP Manufacturing Production 0.6% versus 0.5% expected. The currency fell.

All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings: Pierre Moscovici, Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, Taxation and Customs noted that, “The EU takes its international tax good governance commitments seriously. It is reasonable for us to expect the same from our international partners. We want to have fair and open discussions with our partners on tax issues that concern us all in the global community. The EU list will be our tool to deal with third countries that refuse to play fair.” The currency fell.

2:30pm CAD Building Permits -7.0% versus -5.6% expected. The currency rose.

4:00pm USD JOLTS Job Openings 5.49M versus 5.67M expected. The currency rose.

All Day USD Presidential Election: President Elect Donald J. Trump stated that, “As I’ve said from the beginning, ours was not a campaign, but rather an incredible and great movement made up of millions of hard-working men and women who love their country and want a better, brighter future for themselves and for their families. It’s a movement comprised of Americans from all races, religions, backgrounds and beliefs who want and expect our government to serve the people, and serve the people it will.” The currency rose.

5:20pm CAD Governor Council Member Schembri said that, “The drop in commodity prices and the associated depreciation of the Canadian dollar ushered in a complex adjustment within the Canadian economy. As a result, the exporting landscape is transitioning once again. Canada’s resource sector is shrinking in economic importance as investment and employment shift toward the non-resource sector. Our simulations suggest that commodity exports could decline from the 2014 level of 50 per cent to roughly 40 per cent of total exports by 2020.” The currency rose.

Wednesday, November 9th

12:50am JPY Current Account 1.48T versus 1.98T expected. The currency fell.

2:30am CNY CPI 2.1% versus 2.1% expected.

2:30am CNY PPI 1.2% versus 0.9% expected.

10:30am GBP Goods Trade Balance -12.7B versus -11.3B expected. The currency rose.

11:00am EUR EU Economic Forecasts noted that, . The currency fell.

4:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.4M versus 1.3M expected. The currency rose.

7:00pm GBP MPC Member Haldane said that, “The dynamics of financial markets are also an area of active policy interest, not least in the light of the financial crisis. During the crisis, there were sharp swings in asset prices and liquidity premia in many financial markets. Since the crisis, there have been concerns about market-makers’ willingness to make markets, potentially impairing liquidity. These are policy questions which are not easily amenable to existing asset pricing models.” The currency rose.

9:00pm NZD Official Cash Rate 1.75% versus 1.75% expected. The currency fell.

9:00pm NZD RBNZ Rate Statement noted that, “Weak global conditions and low interest rates relative to New Zealand are keeping upward pressure on the New Zealand dollar exchange rate. The exchange rate remains higher than is sustainable for balanced economic growth and, together with low global inflation, continues to generate negative inflation in the tradables sector. A decline in the exchange rate is needed.” The currency fell.

9:00pm NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement noted that, . The currency fell.

10:00pm NZD RBNZ Press Conference: Governor Graeme Wheeler said that the exchange rate was “higher than is sustainable” and that he had “an open mind on intervention.” Adding that, “Numerous uncertainties remain, particularly in respect of the international outlook and policy may need to adjust accordingly”. The currency fell.

Thursday, November 10th

2:30pm CAD NHPI 0.2% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.

2:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 254K versus 267K expected. The currency rose.

3:15pm USD FOMC Member Bullard said that, “Because unemployment and inflation are relatively close to their long-run values, the recommended policy rate from a Taylor-type rule depends mostly on the safe real rate of return. Safe real rates of return are exceptionally low and are not expected to rise soon, a ‘low-safe-real-rate regime.’ This means, in turn, that the policy rate should be expected to remain exceptionally low over the forecast horizon.” The currency rose.

4:00pm USD Mortgage Delinquencies 4.52% versus last 4.66%. The currency rose.

Friday, November 11th

3:15am AUD RBA Assistant Governor Debelle said that, “A well-functioning foreign exchange market is very much in the interest of all market participants. This clearly includes central banks, both in their own role as market participants but also as the exchange rate is an important channel of monetary policy transmission. In a globalised world, the foreign exchange market is one of the most vital parts of the financial plumbing. The Code sets out global principles of good practice in the foreign exchange market to provide a common set of guidance to the market, including in areas where there is a degree of uncertainty about what sort of practices are acceptable, and what are not. This should help to restore confidence and promote the effective functioning of the wholesale FX market.” The currency fell.

All Day EUR French Bank Holiday

All Day CAD Bank Holiday

All Day USD Bank Holiday

2:30pm USD FOMC Member Fischer said that, “While there are good grounds to expect that spillovers from U.S. monetary policy actions will be manageable for most of our trading partners, events may unfold differently than expected. To illustrate, a noticeably faster U.S. recovery would require a more rapid removal of U.S. accommodation and could exert noticeably larger spillovers abroad by putting more upward pressure on foreign interest rates and by inducing larger depreciations of foreign currencies.” The currency fell.

4:00pm USD Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 91.6 versus 87.4 expected. The currency fell.

4:50pm CAD BOC Governor Poloz has not yet spoken.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

 

EURUSD:

Forecast: Higher

Actual: Lower from a 1.10555 open to a 1.08732 close.

 

USDJPY:

Forecast: Mildly higher

Actual: Higher from a 104.007 open to 106.610 close.

                                                      

GBPUSD:

Forecast: Mildly higher
Actual: Higher from a 1.24519 open to a 1.26183 close.

 

AUDUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Lower from a 0.76759 open to 0.75514 close.

 

USDCAD:

Forecast: Mildly higher
Actual: Higher from a 1.33351 open to a 1.35371 close.

 

NZDUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Lower from a 0.73460 open to a 0.71395 close.

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