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Weekly Forex Market Recap for the Week Ending November 18th

Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of November 14th through November 18th

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of November 14th through November 18th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.

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Monday, November 14th

12:50am JPY Preliminary GDP 0.5% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.

2:00am JPY BOJ Governor Kuroda said that, “After the introduction of QQE, inflation expectations increased significantly through around summer 2014. This clearly shows that monetary policy is effective in raising inflation expectations. Thereafter, however, with headwinds such as a significant decline in crude oil prices, weak demand following the consumption tax hike, and volatility in global financial  markets  reflecting  the  slowdown  in  emerging  economies,  inflation  expectations resumed  their  decline  from  summer  2015  and  have  remained  in  a  weakening  phase.” The currency fell.

3:00am CNY Industrial Production 6.1% versus 6.2% expected.

3:00am CNY Fixed Asset Investment 8.3% versus 8.2% expected.

9:15am CHF PPI 0.1% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.

4:00pm EUR ECB President Draghi said that, “All of this would have probably not been enough, nevertheless, to overcome the many difficulties, sometimes dramatic required by their economic politics. In a Government that saw six parties in the coalition and nine parties that offered the external support, it became essential, to be able to take decisions, and especially such important decisions, a particular way to manage the relationships to strengthen the loyalty and the respect among members.” The currency fell.

Tuesday, November 15th

1:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes noted that, “The US dollar exchange rate had appreciated a little in October, with the movement having been broadly based against the major currencies. The Japanese yen and UK pound had depreciated on a trade-weighted basis, while the euro and Chinese renminbi had been little changed in trade-weighted terms. Members noted that the sharp depreciation of the UK pound on 7 October had been short lived and had not been accompanied by any other volatility in currency markets. The Australian dollar exchange rate had been little changed since the October meeting.” The currency rose.

8:00am EUR German Preliminary GDP 0.2% versus 0.3% expected. The currency fell.

9:15am AUD RBA Governor Lowe said that, “The low interest rates are helping to support the economy. And the decline in the exchange rate over recent years has assisted a number of industries. Survey measures of business conditions and consumer confidence generally remain above average. The prices for our commodity exports have also lifted since the start of 2016. As a result, for the first time in some years, Australia’s terms of trade have moved higher. This will help to boost incomes and fiscal revenues.” The currency rose.

10:30am GBP CPI 0.9% versus 1.1% expected. The currency fell.

10:30am GBP PPI Input 4.6% versus 1.6% expected. The currency fell.

10:30am GBP RPI 2.0% versus 2.3% expected. The currency fell.

11:00am EUR Flash GDP 0.3% versus 0.3% expected. The currency fell.

11:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 13.8 versus 7.9 expected. The currency fell.

2:30pm USD Core Retail Sales 0.8% versus 0.5% expected. The currency rose.

2:30pm USD Retail Sales 0.8% versus 0.6% expected. The currency rose.

2:30pm USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 1.5 versus -1.5 expected. The currency rose.

2:30pm USD Import Prices 0.5% versus 0.4% expected. The currency rose.

3:35pm NZD GDT Price Index 4.5% versus last 11.4%. The currency fell.

7:30pm USD FOMC Member Fischer in the aftermath of the U.S. presidential election said that, “If the question is were you surprised by the situation in the world on Wednesday…versus where it was two days before, the answer is yes”. The currency rose.

Wednesday, November 16th

1:30am AUD Wage Price Index 0.4% versus 0.5% expected. The currency fell.

9:05am USD FOMC Member Bullard said that, “I have not changed my near-term outlook for the U.S. economy or U.S. monetary policy as of today. Single-party control of the legislative and executive branches in the U.S. means that there may be some increased scope for legislative action going forward which could have a medium-run impact on the U.S. economy. Other types of policy changes may have an impact on U.S. growth prospects in the longer run.” The currency rose.

10:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 2.3% versus 2.3% expected. The currency fell.

10:30am GBP Claimant Count Change 9.8K versus 1.9K expected. The currency fell.

10:30am GBP Unemployment Rate 4.8% versus 4.9% expected. The currency fell.

2:30pm CAD Manufacturing Sales 0.3% versus -0.2% expected. The currency rose.

2:30pm USD PPI 0.0% versus 0.3% expected. The currency rose.

2:30pm USD Core PPI -0.2% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.

3:15pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 75.3% versus 75.5% expected. The currency rose.

3:15pm USD Industrial Production 0.0% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.

4:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 5.3M versus 0.4M expected. The currency rose.

6:05pm CAD Governor Council Member Lane said that, “In Canada, we have been living with an open capital account for several decades. But our flexible exchange rate gives us room to conduct an effective monetary policy that is consistent with domestic conditions and promotes the economic and financial welfare of Canadians. In many other countries, however, there are legitimate concerns that their monetary policies may be overwhelmed by the global financial cycle.” The currency rose.

Thursday, November 17th

1:30am AUD Employment Change 9.8K versus 20.3K expected. The currency fell.

1:30am AUD Unemployment Rate 5.6% versus 5.7% expected. The currency fell.

10:30am GBP Retail Sales 1.9% versus 0.5% expected. The currency fell.

11:00am EUR Final CPI 0.5% versus 0.4% expected. The currency fell.

1:30pm EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts noted that, “Looking ahead, in December 2016 the Governing Council would be in a better position to take a more complete perspective on the inflation outlook and thereby evaluate the likelihood of inflation not only converging to levels that were closer to 2% but also stabilising around those levels with sufficient confidence.” The currency fell.

2:30pm CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 11.77B versus 12.23B expected. The currency fell.

2:30pm USD Building Permits 1.23M versus 1.19M expected. The currency rose.

2:30pm USD CPI 0.4% versus 0.4% expected. The currency rose.

2:30pm USD Core CPI 0.1% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.

2:30pm USD Philly Federal Manufacturing Index 7.6 versus 8.1 expected. The currency rose.

2:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 235K versus 257K expected. The currency rose.

2:30pm USD Housing Starts 1.32M versus 1.16M expected. The currency rose.

2:50pm USD FOMC Member Dudley said that, “Traditional nine-to-five jobs are becoming less common, and people are increasingly employed in less traditional work arrangements.  Measuring the creation and destruction of these new jobs is of utmost importance to gain a better assessment of the health of the labor market.  We also need to understand how this evolution is affecting job security and earnings stability.” The currency rose.

4:00pm USD Federal Chairman Yellen in testimony before the U.S. Congress said that, “At our meeting earlier this month, the Committee judged that the case for an increase in the target range had continued to strengthen and that such an increase could well become appropriate relatively soon if incoming data provide some further evidence of continued progress toward the Committee’s objectives. This judgment recognized that progress in the labor market has continued and that economic activity has picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of this year.” The currency rose.

6:00pm CHF Governor Board Member Maechler said that, “We are active in the foreign exchange market at all market hours. After all, it is a global market and trading takes place around the clock. Needless to say, we have built up the relevant capacities and necessary know-how in this area.” The currency rose.

Friday, November 18th

9:30am EUR ECB President Draghi said that, “So even if there are many encouraging trends in the euro area economy, the recovery remains highly reliant on a constellation of financing conditions that, in turn, depend on continued monetary support. The ECB will continue to act, as warranted, by using all the instruments available within our mandate to secure a sustained convergence of inflation towards a level below, but close to 2%.” The currency fell.

10:10am GBP MPC Member Broadbent said that, “The MPC would be less inclined to accommodate above-target inflation if it didn’t also expect demand to fall slightly short of that supply potential. It would be able to do more prevent any rise in unemployment if it weren’t for the inflationary pressure brought about by the fall in the currency.” The currency fell.

11:30am CHF Governor Board Member Maechler said that, “The use of unconventional measures poses some challenges for the implementation of monetary policy. For the Swiss National Bank, whose monetary policy is based on a negative interest rate and foreign currency purchases, it was necessary to deepen its understanding of the market, refine its analytical tools and strengthen its market contacts.” The currency rose.

11:30am EUR German Buba President Weidmann said that, “Bringing down national barriers and creating a European venture capital market, for instance, would help fast-growing, fledgling enterprises gain better access to capital. More private risk sharing through integrated capital markets is potentially a much more important shock absorber than public risk sharing.” The currency fell.

11:30am USD FOMC Member Bullard said that, “Markets are currently pricing in a high probability of a December move, I’m leaning toward supporting that, I think the question now is more about 2017.” The currency rose.

2:30pm CAD Core CPI 0.2% versus 0.3% expected. The currency rose.

2:30pm CAD CPI 0.2% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.

3:30pm USD FOMC Member Dudley said that, “Over the last decade, we have devoted significant resources to improving the measurement of the economic expectations of households.  This work culminated in the creation of the Survey of Consumer Expectations, or SCE, in 2013.  The expectations data collected in our survey give us direct insight into households’ decision-making and consumers’ financial and economic outlooks.”  The currency rose.

3:30pm USD FOMC Member George said that, “At its most recent meeting, the FOMC statement noted that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen but decided, for the time being, to wait for some further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives. As a voting member of the Committee, I dissented in favor of a modest 25-basis point increase.” The currency rose.

Saturday, November 19th

3:45am USD FOMC Member Powell is yet to speak.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

EURUSD:

Forecast: Lower

Actual: Lower from a 1.08310 open to a 1.05932 close.

USDJPY:

Forecast: Higher

Actual: Higher from a 106.848 open to 110.546 close.                                                   

GBPUSD:

Forecast: Mildly higher
Actual: Lower from a 1.25615 open to a 1.23274 close.

AUDUSD:

Forecast: Lower
Actual: Lower from a 0.75409 open to 0.73442 close.

USDCAD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Higher from a 1.34987 open to a 1.34893 close.

NZDUSD:

Forecast: Mildly higher
Actual: Lower from a 0.71396 open to a 0.70225 close.

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.


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