Weekly Forex Market Recap for the Week Ending November 25th

Jay Hawk

Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of November 21st through November 25th

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of November 21st through November 25th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.

Sunday, November 20th

            10:45pm NZD Core Retail Sales 0.3% versus 1.1% expected. The currency rose.

Monday, November 21st       

2:30pm CAD Wholesale Sales -1.2% versus 0.3% expected. The currency rose.

5:00pm EUR ECB President Draghi said that, “More than four million jobs have been created since 2013, when the situation was at its worst. Domestic demand has also strengthened and real GDP growth has recorded positive figures for 14 consecutive quarters. Since the beginning of the year headline inflation has gradually picked up, moving from the negative rate of -0.2 in February to 0.5 in October. Our monetary policy measures since June 2014­ have been a key factor behind these positive developments. Asset purchases, targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) and low policy rates have strongly supported the recovery.” The currency rose.

Tuesday, November 22nd

8:45am AUD RBA Assistant Governor Kent said that, “A key reason for the differences across the states over recent years has been the effect of the large declines in mining investment and commodity prices. These have contributed to weaker economic conditions in the mining states and, therefore, weighed on economic conditions nationally. But those forces are waning; indeed, the terms of trade have even risen of late. Hence, there are reasonable prospects for stronger growth of nominal demand in the mining states and, by extension, for the economy overall.” The currency rose.

10:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 4.3B versus 5.9B expected. The currency fell.

2:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales 0.0% versus 0.6% expected. The currency fell.

2:30pm CAD Retail Sales 0.6% versus 0.7% expected. The currency fell.

4:00pm USD Existing Home Sales 5.60M versus 5.43M expected. The currency fell.

Wednesday, November 23rd

All Day JPY Bank Holiday

1:30am AUD Construction Work Done -4.9% versus -1.5% expected. The currency fell.

9:00am EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.5 versus 51.5 expected. The currency fell.

9:00am EUR French Flash Services PMI 52.6 versus 52.1 expected. The currency fell.

9:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 54.4 versus 54.8 expected. The currency fell.

9:30am EUR German Flash Services PMI 55.0 versus 54.1 expected. The currency fell.

10:00am EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 53.7 versus 53.2 expected. The currency fell.

10:00am EUR Flash Services PMI 54.1 versus 53.1 expected. The currency fell.

10:00am GBP MPC Member Forbes said that, “Measuring uncertainty is hard. Measuring the impact of uncertainty on the economy is even harder. Its effects are multifaceted and work through much more than just business investment. Predicting the impact of uncertainty on the economy in the future is even harder still. Heightened uncertainty can have different effects based on credit conditions. Heightened uncertainty can not only weaken demand, but also the supply potential of an economy, making it more challenging for monetary policy to cushion its effects. There is much uncertainty about uncertainty.” The currency rose.

1:30pm GBP Autumn Forecast Statement noted that “At its November meeting, the MPC voted unanimously to maintain the package of measures announced in August, and noted that the measures have supported financial conditions. Market interest rates have remained low, with the average rate on a new variable rate mortgage now below 2%. Sterling corporate bond spreads narrowed after the announcement of corporate bond purchases, reducing the cost for businesses of borrowing to invest.” The currency rose.

2:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders 1.0% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.

2:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 251K versus 241K expected. The currency rose.

2:30pm USD Durable Goods Orders 4.8% versus 1.2% expected. The currency rose.

4:00pm USD New Home Sales 563K versus 591K expected. The currency rose.

4:00pm USD Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 93.8 versus 91.6 expected. The currency rose.

4:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.3M versus 0.3M expected. The currency rose.

8:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes noted that, “A few members emphasized that a cautious approach to removing accommodation was warranted given the proximity of policy rates to the effective lower bound, as the Committee had more scope to increase policy rates, if necessary, than to reduce them. Two members preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at this meeting. They saw inflation as close to the 2 percent objective and viewed an increase in the federal funds rate as appropriate at this meeting because they judged that the economy was essentially at maximum employment and that monetary policy was unable to contribute to a permanent further improvement in labor market conditions in these circumstances.” The currency rose.

Thursday, November 24th

10:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate 110.4 versus 110.6 expected. The currency fell.

All Day USD Bank Holiday

6:15pm CHF Governor Board Member Zurbrugg said that, “The negative interest rate charged on banks’ sight deposits at the SNB since January 2015 is necessary from a monetary policy perspective. Given low interest rates around the world and the difficult global economic situation, negative interest – coupled with the SNB’s willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market – serves to ease upward pressure on the Swiss franc. Negative interest helps to stabilise prices and support economic activity in Switzerland. These are also important preconditions for a profitable, stable financial system.” The currency rose.

8:25pm GBP MPC Member Haldane said that, “We have all got a lot on our plates:  from the uncertainties of Brexit to the complexities of geo-politics;  from wrenching technological change to rising inequality;  from simmering mistrust of big business, big banks and big government.  We would be forgiven for putting diversity issues on the back-burner while these more pressing matters resolved themselves, would we not?  While this sounds reasonable, Ithink it would be exactly the wrong response.  This environment is precisely one in which we should be pressing the accelerator, rather than the brake, on diversity policies and practices.” The currency rose.

10:45pm NZD Trade Balance -846M versus -950M expected. The currency fell.

Friday, November 25th

12:30am JPY Tokyo Core CPI -0.4% versus -0.4% expected. The currency rose.

10:30am GBP Second Estimate GDP 0.5% versus 0.5% expected. The currency rose.

10:30am GBP Preliminary Business Investment 0.9% versus -0.2% expected. The currency rose.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week


Forecast: Lower

Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.05910 open to a 1.05891 close.


Forecast: Higher

Actual: Higher from a 110.872 open to 113.21 close.                                              


Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.23439 open to a 1.24540 close.


Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 0.73295 open to 0.74264 close.


Forecast: Mildly lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.34921 open to a 1.35181 close.


Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 0.69905 open to a 0.70387 close.

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Jay Hawk
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