What’s happening in the forex markets next week?

David Hobart

The forex trading week is coming to an end, so it makes sense to take an early look at next week’s action to see what the markets might be up to then.

Monday will be a relatively quiet day, despite the fact that there are no major holidays or other bank closing events scheduled on the calendar.

July’s budget statement will come out of the US at 6pm GMT.

This will be quickly followed by a speech from Christopher Kent, who is the Assistant Governor (Economic) at the Reserve Bank of Australia. This is due to take place at 10pm GMT.

The food price index for July will be out of New Zealand shortly afterwards at 10.45pm GMT. Month on month, this is expected to show a change from -0.7% to +0.4%.

Japan’s domestic corporate goods price index for the month of July will also be out and will round off the day at 11.50pm GMT. This is predicted to show a year on year rise from -0.1% to +0.3%.

Looking ahead to Tuesday, the first major event on the calendar will be the German harmonised index of consumer prices, which is out at 6am GMT and which is expected to reflect the month of July. It is expected that this will show a change from 0.4% to 0.1% month on month, but that year on year it will manage to remain steady at its last recorded position of 1.1%. This reflects ongoing concerns about the German economy, which in recent months has been seen to be flag.

Spanish consumer price index information for July will be out at 7am GMT and is expected to show no month on month change from -0.6%. Year on year it is also expected to stay steady, this time at +0.5%.

British average earnings rates (excluding bonuses) will be out at 8.30am GMT, this time covering the month of June. This is expected to show a slight downward trend, and to go from 3.6% to 3.5%.

British unemployment rates will be out at the same time and are due to hold firm at 3.8%.

US consumer price index data for July will be out at 12.30pm GMT and is expected to show a month on month change from 0.3% to 0.2%. This metric excludes food and energy – and an equivalent metric which includes those goods is also due and will show a change from 1.6% to 1.7% on a year on year basis.

Japanese machinery orders data will be out later in the day in the GMT time zone covering the month of June. This is widely expected to show a significant month on month change from -7.8% to +2.6% – a rise of over 10%.

On Wednesday, preliminary German gross domestic product information for the second quarter of 2019 will be out at 6am GMT. This is expected to show no quarter on quarter change from its last recorded position of 0.4% – a move which will reassure those who are concerned about the possibility of dangerous German recession.

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David Hobart
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