The significant sell off for the Australian Dollar in early May after the Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut pushed AUDUSD below key .7411 after the US Employment report on Friday, to set the intermediate-term theme bearish for May.
Additionally, NZDUSD has broken the .6805 level for a Double Top to signal an intermediate-term neutral tone.
Wednesday caution, a probe higher to build on the hesitant Tuesday rebound from ahead of minor support at .7279 (from .7297), to nudge above modest resistance at .7385/94, but whilst below .7430 we see the bias lower Thursday.
- We see a downside bias for .7332 and .7297; break here aims for .7279, maybe .7240.
- But above .7430 aims for .7478, maybe .7517.
The early May break below key .7411 signalled an intermediate-term bearish shift.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .7197.
- Below here targets .7106 and .7000.
What Changes This? Above .7719 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7835.
Daily AUDUSD Chart
Unexpectedly building on the Tuesday hammer pattern Wednesday, with a push above modest resistance at .6783 and .6808, but capped at .6848 ahead of a better barrier at .6881, to leave a bear bias from the Monday Double Top pattern and downside risk into Thursday.
Moreover, the Double Top pattern below .6805 produced an intermediate-term shift to neutral, with ongoing risks for an intermediate-term shift to bearish below .6664.
- We see a downside bias for .6776 and to aim for .6744, maybe .6712/11.
- But above .6881 opens risk up to .6922, maybe 6941.
Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by .7054 and .6664.
Range Breakout Challenge
- Upside: Above .7054 aims higher for .7232 and .7396/7413.
- Downside: Below .6664 sees risk lower for .6572/41, .6418 and .6343.
Daily NZDUSD Chart