AUDUSD Bear Trend and NZDUSD Bearish Threat

audusd chart

  • Late February and early March has seen a resurrection of a stronger US Dollar, with a rising expectation of inflation in the US, a more hawkish tone from Powell and the FOMC, plus Trump increasing the prospects for Trade Wars.
  • For AUDUSD this has produced a sell off through 7756, which has signalled an intermediate-term bearish shift.
  • Although the NZDUSD currency rate has not quite made the same bearish intermediate-term statement as AUDUSD, the threat is for a push below .7175 for a more bearish tone into March.

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AUDUSD Bearish shift and downside risks

A low level consolidation Friday reinforced Thursday’s plunge through key .7756 to hit the next .7710 target and keep the bias lower Monday.

The early March break below .7756 produced a bearish intermediate-term shift.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 7710; break here aims for .7677 and .7651, maybe even towards .7635.
  • But above .7786 opens risk up to .7819, which we would look to try to cap.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .7635.

  • Lower targets would be .7500 and .7368/31
  • What Changes This? Above .7893 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above .7989 is needed for a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

.7786 .7819** .7846* .7893** .7902*
.7710* .7677 .7651** .7635* .7599

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

audusd chart



NZDUSD Downside threat to key .7175

A rebound failure back from just above our .7271 resistance (from .7279), to sustain bear pressures from Thursday’s setback through .7200 (close to key .7175, a bounce from .7183) plus from the late February reversal below the up trend line from December, to keep the bias lower Monday.

The mid-February surge through .7420 produced a shift to an intermediate-term bull theme, BUT risks is growing for a test to .7175, to shift straight back to a bear trend with a Double Top.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias back to .7183; below here quickly targets key .7175, then .7140/38.
  • But above .7279 opens risk up to .7291/96 and then .7345.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

  • Whilst above .7175, we see a positive tone with the bullish threat up to .7558 and .7744.

What Changes This? But below .7175 signals a direct shift to bearish.

Resistance and Support:

.7279 .7291/96* .7345** .7365* .7386**
.7183 .7175*** .7138** .7109 .7070/69**

4 Hour NZDUSD Chart

nzdusd chart


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