AUDUSD and NZDUSD Form Intermediate-Term Bases

audusd chart

  • A better recovery tone for both AUDUSD and NZDUSD into mid-December, partially driven by a slightly weakened US Dollar.
  • For AUDUSD this has seen a move to an intermediate-term neutral, range theme, with immediate risks lower.
  • But the December threat for AUDUSD is skewed for a more bullish shift (only confirmed above .7730).
  • NZDUSD secured a more robust basing pattern and shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bullish to target .7211/18, maybe towards .7434 into year-end (although the immediate bias is for a correction lower).

Read all technical analyses and forecasts

AUDUSD Downside bias

An initial push higher Friday above resistance at .7675, but the subsequent setback produced a negative Shooting Star negative candlestick, shifting the bias lower for Monday.

The mid-December push above .7654 saw our intermediate-term bearish view shift back to a neutral, range theme for December (with bias skewed for a bullish shift above .7730).

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .7625 targets .7599, maybe even closer to the .7550/53 area.
  • But above .7678 aims for ,7695/7700, possibly key .7730.

Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by .7500 and .7730.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above .7730aims higher for .7897 and towards .8125.
  • Downside: Below .7500 sees risk lower for .7368/31and potentially closer to the .7155/41 area.

Resistance and Support:

.7678 .7695/7700* .7730*** .7769 .7796
.7625 .7599* .7550/43 .7500*** .7457

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

audusd chart 

NZDUSD Negative correction tone

A rebound higher Friday to prod at the recent peak at .7028, but the subsequent significant setback has for now rejected upside pressures (from the mid-December push above key .6980) for a negative candlestick pattern to flip the bias lower for Monday.

The mid-December push above .6945 and .6980 produced an intermediate-term shift from bearish to neutral and then to a bullish theme for December.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for through .6976 to target .6931, maybe even closer to .6882.
  • But above .7028/34 aims for .7056, maybe towards .7105.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

  • We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to .7211/18.
  • Above here targets .7434 and .7558.
  • What Changes This? Below .6815 signals a neutral tone, quickly shifting bearish below .6778.

Resistance and Support:

.7028/34 .7056 .7105 .7163** .7211/18**
.6976 .6931 .6882* .6818/15*** .6778***

4 Hour NZDUSD Chart

nzdusd chart 

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