- The US Dollar has NOT produced a more positive tone in December, despite the anticipated progression of tax reform legislation, which has generally lead to other asset classes signalling a “risk on” environment (Equities higher, Bond markets lower).
- This has allowed the Major global currencies to stage mid-December rallies against the US$ Dollar.
- For EURUSD, we see an intermediate-term range environment, between 1.1961 and 1.1712, but with the skewed bias shifting to the upside into latter December.
- GBPUSD is also in both wide and narrow ranges (the wider range between 1.3026 and 1,3658), but again with a slight upside bias into the holiday season and year-end.
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EURUSD Bullish threat
Another advance as anticipated Wednesday through 1.1863 and to probe into the 1.1900/03 resistance area, to sustain Monday’s positive tone up through 1.1781 and 1.1809 resistances, to keep the bias higher for Thursday.
We still see an intermediate-term neutral, broader range theme for December (with the range mow see as 1.1961-1.1712), BUT with growing risk for a bullish shift above 1.1961.
For Today:
- We see an upside bias through the 1.1900/03 area; break here quickly aims for the key 1.1961 peak and maybe 1.2005.
- But below 1.1827 opens risk down to 1.1774.
Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.1961 and 1.1712.
Range Breakout Challenge
- Upside: Above 1.1961 targets 1.2089 and aims higher for 1.2173, 1.2272 and 1.2600.
- Downside: Below 1.1712 targets 1.1553 and sees risk lower for 1.1311 and 1.1107.
Resistance and Support:
| 1.1900/03 | 1.1961*** | 1.2005* | 1.2034** | 1.2089*** |
| 1.1827** | 1.1774 | 1.1735** | 1.1716/12*** | 1.1660** |
4 Hour EURUSD Chart
GBPUSD Positive bias
A solid consolidation Wednesday to build on Tuesday’s dip and rebound (as also seen Monday), still an erratic consolidation from mid-December, but we with a positive bias for Thursday.
We still see an intermediate-term neutral range theme into December (1.3026-1.3658).
For Today:
- We see a positive tone to aim through 1.3421 and then towards 1.3466; a break here targets 1.3520, possibly towards 1.3549
- But below 1.3329 aims at the 1.3302/1.3290 support area, maybe towards 1.3220.
Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.3026 and 1.3658.
Range Breakout Challenge
- Upside: Above 1.3658 aims higher for 1.3841 and 1.4000.
- Downside: Below 1.3026 sees risk lower for 1.2773 and 1.2587.
Resistance and Support:
| 1.3421 | 1.3466* | 1.3520* | 1.3549* | 1.3596** |
| 1.3329 | 1.3302/1.3290** | 1.3220** | 1.3181 | 1.3113 |
4 Hour GBPUSD Chart
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