EURUSD and GBPUSD Aiming Lower

eurusd chart

  • A recovery theme for the US Dollar through mid-October in reaction to a slightly more hawkish shift by various Fed members and also in anticipation of a new FOMC Chairman being more hawkish.
  • In a recent report here, we highlighted negative pressures for both EURUSD and GBPUSD, which we look to resume into the second half of October.
  • For EURUSD, a key support level remains 1.1661, below which sees a more negative trend; for GBPUSD a more bearish shift requires a push below 1.2903.

EURUSD – Bearish threat

A consolidation tone on Wednesday, but contained below initial resistance at 1.1817, sustaining downside pressures from the push this week down through support at 1.1760 and 1.1738 and from the September Head and Shoulders pattern, aiming lower again for Thursday.

October activity has served to reinforce the intermediate-term, broader range environment, BUT with risk growing for a more bearish shift below 1.1661.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.1700; break here aims for 1.1668 and critical 1.1661.
  • But above 1.1817 opens risk up to 1.1880.

Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.1661 and 1.2089.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 1.2089 aims higher for 1.2173, maybe closer to 1.2600/02.
  • Downside: Below 1.1661 sees risk lower for 1.1479 and 1.1311.

4 Hour EURUSD Chart

eurusd chart

GBPUSD – Negative pressures resuming

A negative consolidation tone on Wednesday below minor, initial resistance at 1.3210 after Tuesday’s plunge down through support at 1.3205 rejected the recent recovery effort, keeping the bias to the downside Thursday.

The early October push through 1.3147 neutralised the intermediate term bullish theme, BUT we still see October risk for a challenge to 1.2903, which would see an intermediate-term bear shift.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3120; break here aims for 1.3073, maybe 1.3026.
  • But above 1.3210 opens risk up to 1.3287.

Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.2903 and 1.3658.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 1.3658 aims higher for 1.3841 and 1.4000.
  • Downside: Below 1.2903 sees risk lower for 1.2773 and 1.2587.

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart

gbpusd chart


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