EURUSD & GBPUSD Indecisive, But Immediate Risks Lower

eurusd chart

  • Ongoing concerns regarding the threat of tariffs and a global trade war have seen a more notable move to lower yields by European and UK government bond markets compared to the US Treasury market, sending the Euro and GB Pound lower against the USD.
  • EURUSD has pushed below 1.2435 resistance, which neutralised the intermediate-term bull view, for a range theme into the second half of March, with the immediate bias lower.
  • GBPUSD retains an intermediate-term bearish bias whilst below 1.4070.

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EURUSD Negative tone

A Friday prod lower through 1.2272 support to sustain the negative theme from Thursday’s setback through 1.2346 and 1.2313 supports and the March up trend line, to keep a negative bias for Monday.

The probe above 1.2435 set a broader range theme into March.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.2250; break here aims for the 1.2205.03 area. Mayne for key 1.2153.
  • But above 1.2336 opens risk up to 12384, maybe 1.2412/13.

 Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.2539 to 1.2153.

  • Upside Risks: Above 1.2539 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.2600/02, 1.2827 and 1.3000.
  • Downside Risks: Below 1.2153 sees a bear trend to target 1.1914, 1.1716 and 1.1553.

Resistance and Support:

1.2336 1.2384* 1.2412/13** 1.2445/46** 1.2484
1.2250** 1.2205/03 1.2153*** 1.2110 1.2059*

4 Hour EURUSD Chart

eurusd chart


GBPUSD Consolidation, but negative bias

A Friday setback below minor 1.3910  support, but reinforcing a consolidation theme since Wednesday’s rebound failure at 1.3996, to leave a neutral tone for Monday (with a negative bias).

The push below 1.3730 to start March set an intermediate-term bear trend into March, BUT risk is growing for a push above 1.4070 for an intermediate-term shift to neutral and maybe to bullish above 1.4145.

For Today:

  • Below 1.3873 opens risk down to 1.3840, maybe 1.3780, which we would look to try to hold.
  • Above 1.3996 aims for key 1.4070, maybe even towards critical 1.4145.

 Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.3456.

  • Lower targets would be 1.3300 and 1.3060/38
  • What Changes This? Above 1.4070 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 1.4145 is needed for a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.3996** 1.4070*** 1.4145*** 1.4151 1.4228
1.3873** 1.3840* 1.3780** 1.3754* 1.3710***

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart

gbpusd chart


Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.