EURUSD and GBPUSD Rebound Risks

eurusd chart

  • The more positive US Dollar seen in October has faded through mid-November, with the US$ weakening within G3 (versus the Euro and Japanese Yen), but also to an extent against the GBP.
  • For EURUSD, the recent rebound effort has eased the intermediate-term bearish theme, with risks growing to neutralise this bear trend with a push above 1.1880,
  • For GBPUSD, the market remains dominated by erratic activity since the Bank of England rate hike in early November, but currently with a positive tone to the non-trend environment.

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EURUSD Rebound bias

A solid rebound Friday as expected, rejecting downside forces from Wednesday’s bearish Shooting Star candlestick pattern setback from 1.1861 and despite a sell off this already morning through the 1.1756/43 support rea, whilst above 1.1712 we see the bias back higher Monday.

November risk is still for a challenge to 1.1880, above which would see an intermediate-term shift from bearish to neutral.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.1797; break here aims for 1.1835 then 1.1861 and opens risk to key 1.1880.
  • But below 1.1712 quickly aims at 1.1660.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • Whilst below 1.1880 we see a negative tone with the bearish threat to 1.1479.
  • Below here targets 1.1311 and 1.1107.
  • What Changes This? Above 1.1880 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.2089.

Resistance and Support:

1.1835 1.1860/61** 1.1880*** 1.1936** 1.2005**
1.1712 1.1660** 1.1621* 1.1584* 1.1553**

4 Hour EURUSD Chart

eurusd chart


GBPUSD Positive tone

A solid bounce Thursday-Friday above 1.3230 resistance, easing negative pressures from the significant mid-November sell off (that probed 1.3066 support), keeping the bias higher Monday.

We see a broader range theme, but still see November risk for a challenge to 1.2903, below which would see an intermediate-term bear shift.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias back to 1.3276, maybe the 1.3321/38 area.
  • But below 1.3168 opens risk up to 1.3113.

Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.2903 and 1.3658.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 1.3658 aims higher for 1.3841 and 1.4000.
  • Downside: Below 1.2903 sees risk lower for 1.2773 and 1.2587.

Resistance and Support:

1.3276 1.3321/38** 1.3366 1.3402 1.3464
1.3168 1.3113 1.3060* 1.3038/26/17** 1.3000

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart

gbpusd chart

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